UN says updated NDCs show progression as top emitters are yet to submit them

THe updated across the country dictated Contributions (NDCs), or process plans below the genus paris Agreement to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapt to climate change, furnished so far for the 2035 period, show a progression in terms of quality, credibility, and economic coverage, a United Nations (UN) report released on Tuesday said. Only 64 of 195 parties have so far updated their NDCs, with the top three emitters yet to do so.The NDC Synthesis report analysing the impact of NDCs on climate action globally said that 89% of parties to the Paris Agreement have communicated economy-wide targets this year. It is based on the 65 new NDCs submitted between January 1, 2024, and September 30, 2025, covering about 30% of total global emissions.President Xi Jinping last month announced China, the world’s largest polluter in terms of CO2 emissions, will cut economy-wide net GHC emissions by 7 to 10% from peak levels. He said Chia will increase non-fossil fuel energy consumption to over 30% of the total energy usage.The European Union (EU), which has submitted a “statement of intent”, said it plans to submit the next NDC with an indicative 2035 target of reduction in net GHG emissions expected to be between 66.25% and 72.5% compared to 1990 levels.Environmental groups have criticised the range, saying it is not as ambitious as they expected. The EU is still to forge a consensus on an ambitious NDC, as Germany, France, and Hungary have not yet come on board.The US, the largest historical emitter, submitted its NDC in December last year before President Donald Trump took over and withdrew from the Paris Agreement.The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has provided additional calculations capturing new NDCs or targets submitted or announced for a wider picture of global progress ahead of the 2025 UN Climate Change Conference (COP30).UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell said this picture, though still incomplete, shows global emissions falling by around 10% by 2035. “Through UN-convened climate cooperation and national efforts, humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough,” he said.Emissions must fall 57% to keep warming within 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels and 37% for 2°C, according to the UN Environment Programme.Experts have raised concerns that the NDC report considers the US plan submitted under the Joe Biden administration, even as it is clear that those commitments are unlikely to come through.India is awaiting a Cabinet nod to update its NDC.The NDC Synthesis report said parties are setting out new national climate targets and plans to achieve them. It added that they differ in pace and scale from those that have come before. The report cited NDCs and said parties are bending their combined emission curve further downwards, but still not quickly enough.“The whole-of-economy, whole-of-society approaches evident in NDCs point to strong climate action as an increasingly core pillar of ensuring economic stability and growth, jobs, health, and energy security and affordability, among many other policy imperatives...,” it said. “However, it remains clear that major acceleration is still needed in terms of delivering faster and deeper emission reductions and ensuring that the vast benefits of strong climate action reach all countries and peoples.”The report said it provides valuable new insights, albeit limited in scope, based on the 64 new NDCs submitted. “It is not possible to draw wide-ranging global-level conclusions or inferences from this limited data set,” the report said.The new NDCs include responses to the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake in 2023. As many as 88% of parties indicated that their NDCs were informed by the outcomes of the stocktake.The report said that 80% specified how the emissions trajectories set out in the new NDCs are broadly consistent with a linear trajectory from the Parties’ 2030 targets to their long-term net zero targets. It added this shows how parties are laying out clear stepping-stones towards net zero, although acceleration of action is still needed. “Further, all NDCs submitted so far go beyond mitigation to include elements, inter alia, on adaptation, finance, technology transfer, capacity-building, and addressing loss and damage, reflecting the comprehensive scope of the Paris Agreement.”The UN report came days after the Global Tipping Points Report of the University of Exeter and international partners, including the Stockholm Resilience Centre, released this month, warned widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs is now underway as the world reaches its first climate tipping point.“We are rapidly approaching multiple Earth system tipping points that could transform our world, with devastating consequences for people and nature. This demands immediate, unprecedented action from leaders at COP30 and policymakers worldwide,” said Professor Tim Lenton from the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.