Conservative, NDP caucuses weighing a budget vote that could trigger an election: sources

Senior conservativist sources say the party's leaders does non require an election compensate now, but they are also opposed to voting for the new Liberal government's first budget given the potential reputational risk of backing Prime Minister Mark Carney.

A Conservative source says speculation about the Liberals potentially losing the budget vote is “not contrived” as, at this time, there are not enough votes for it to pass in the House after it is tabled on Tuesday.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has made a series of demands to the Liberals in exchange for votes on the budget — but there is no realistic expectation that they will be fulfilled given the government has already signalled they are a non-starter.

The Bloc Québécois has also made some expensive demands, including increased Old Age Security payouts, more generous health transfers to the provinces and interest-free loans for first-time homebuyers — policies that are unlikely to be enacted in full given the government is intent on reining in spending.

But the Liberals have made some outreach to the Bloc and Thursday agreed to include at least one of their demands — a crackdown on a tax-evasion scheme the trucking industry has long opposed.

The Conservatives have had conversations with the NDP and the Bloc about how to approach the vote, according to sources.

One senior NDP source and two Conservative sources say the path believed to be most likely is that some of the NDP’s seven MPs could abstain from voting, allowing the budget to pass.

The Liberal minority government needs three additional votes, or two if the Speaker were to break a tie.

If the Liberals can't cobble together enough support, the government could fall and Canadians could be headed for an election before Christmas.

Conservative sources who are familiar with party outreach on the budget said the NDP MPs are not aligned — and that the caucus functions without much structure.

A Conservative source says the small NDP caucus may have conflicting priorities — which could make it easier to convince individual MPs to vote for the budget.

That scenario could deliver the necessary votes to get the document through the House of Commons without the NDP going all-in on the Liberal agenda.

Government House leader Steven MacKinnon meanwhile is publicly urging the Conservatives to vote for the budget to avoid an election so soon after the last one.

“Walk down the aisle and tell the grinchy leader of the Opposition to vote for the budget. Don’t ruin Christmas. Build Canada strong,” he said to one Conservative MP in question period Thursday.

The NDP is strapped for cash and without a leader after the party's poor showing in the last election. The NDP produced its worst result in a generation after propping up the last Liberal minority government.

The party, which is set to pick a permanent leader in March, is not in the best position to run another expensive national campaign so soon.

But the parliamentary caucus still hasn't decided what to do, an NDP source said.

On Tuesday, Poilievre was asked if all of his MPs are expected to vote for the budget — or whether there would be room for some to sit it out. He did not answer the question, but repeated that Conservatives want to see an “affordable” budget.

‘We want an affordable budget’: Poilievre

Also at Wednesday’s caucus meeting, MPs were told their party's plan is to avoid criticizing the NDP for the foreseeable future, sources said.

Poilievre was scathing in his criticism of former NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and his decision to back former prime minister Justin Trudeau through the confidence-and-supply agreement.

The Conservatives also ran attack ads against the NDP in the months before the last federal vote — choices that likely drove down party support to the benefit of Liberals in some ridings.

The decision to go easier on the NDP wasn't communicated during the caucus discussion about the budget — but it signals where the party is at right now strategically, the source said. 

While not making specific demands, interim NDP Leader Don Davies has said his party wants targeted investments to "support working families squeezed by high prices," "good jobs," affordable homes and investments to "strengthen public health care."

Whether budget vote triggers election is 'entirely up to Mr. Carney': NDP leader

Unlike the other parties that have essentially ruled out supporting the budget, Davies said he wants to see what's actually in the document before making a firm commitment. 

"We can't accept an austerity approach," Davies told host David Cochrane. "We're going to wait and see what the budget says."

Senior reporter

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