First exit poll projections in, pollsters give clear edge to NDA, ruling camp projected to cross majority-mark

THe leave canvass predictions feature showed a top inch for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar, paving the way for Nitish Kumar-led government in the state. Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan camp is set to trail behind the NDA in the closely-contested poll. According to the survey by Peoples Pulse, the ruling NDA is set to win the Bihar polls, with 133-159 seat, while the Mahagathbandhan predicted to get between 75-101 seats.Follow the latest updates on Bihar exit poll 2025 LIVE updatesThe survey from People's Insight also showed a clear lead for the BJP-JD(U) alliance. While the BJP is projected to get 68-72 seats, Nitish Kumar's party is expected to get 55-60 seats. On the other hand, the RJD is set to limit to 65-72 seats and Congress leading on 9-13 seats.The Matrize survey showed the NDA heading for a clear majority in the Bihar assembly election, with the ruling camp leading with 147-167 seats and the opposition camp getting 70-90 seats.Exit polls for the Bihar assembly election 2025 started coming in after 6:30 pm on November 11, while the results are set for November 14.What happened in Bihar 2020? Exit polls vs actual resultsIn the immediate previous assembly election in Bihar, in 2020, exit polls had largely predicted a win for the opposition Grand Alliance or Mahagathbandhan of the RJD and Congress, but not far ahead of the JDU-BJP National Democratic Alliance (NDA).The result turned out to be different, with NDA forming the government again with 125 seats, crossing the majority mark of 122 in the 243-member assembly. The Mahagathbandhan was at 110.The election was closely contested, and the MGB's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) emerged as the single-largest party, even though the alliance did not win the majority.The final seat count for the major parties and alliances was 125 for the NDA, of which the BJP won 74, JD(U) 43, and VIP and HAM(S) got four each.In the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) tally of 110, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) contributed 75, followed by the Indian National Congress (INC) with 19, the CPI(ML)-Liberation with 12, and the CPI and CPI(M) with two each.Other parties or independents got eight seats, with Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) getting five.How Bihar 2020 exit polls mostly stayed off the markThe exit polls claimed that the anti-incumbency wave was strong against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's regime. The RJD under the leadership of Tejashwi Yadav was jubilant.Unlike last time, Tejashwi has this time been declared the CM face.As to what the exit polls of 2020 said, the Times Now-C Voter poll gave 116 seats to the NDA, short of the majority of 122 in Bihar’s 243-seat assembly. But it did not give a clear majority to the MGB either, sayong it would get 120 seats. Chirag Paswan’s then-undivided Lok Janshakti Party, which was not with NDA then, was predicted to win only one seat. Now Chirag is with the NDA.Republic’s TV-Jan Ki Baat's 2020 Bihar exit poll gave 118-138 seats to the RJD-Congress-Left Mahagathbandhan, giving it majority most probably. It gave 91-117 seats to the ruling NDA.The channel projected RJD to be the single-largest party; that part proved right even though the MGB alliance fell short.The ABP-CVoter survey had predicted either way. It gave 104 to 128 seats for the Nitish Kumar-led NDA in 2020, and 108-131 for the Mahagathbandhan.Who was closest, farthest?Some agencies such as Patriotic Voter, P-Marq and ABP News-CVoter came the closest in their predictions, with all three projecting an NDA majority.News 18-Today’s Chanakya was the most inaccurate with its prediction of just 55 seats for the NDA and 180 seats for the Mahagathbandhan.Going back to 2015In 2015, when the RJD and JD(U) contested as the Grand Alliance along with the Congress, an average of six exit polls or surveys predicted a narrow win for the Mahagathbandhan, giving it the majority mark of 122.In the actual results of the Bihar election 2015, the RJD-JD(U)-Congress Mahagathbandhan won comfortably with 178 seats.