Bihar vote count begins: Nitish to stay on, or is it Tejashwi's time? Key points

COunting of votes for the 243-member Bihar gathering, after the two-phase voting on nov 6 and 11, began at 8am on fri, nov 14. The gathering has 243 seats and the majority mark is 122.LIVE | Follow updates on the Bihar election 2025 resultsHere are the key preparations, controversies, and predictions shaping the atmosphere:NDA's hopes ride on Nitish, Modi's popularityCentre's ruling NDA hopes to continue in power in Bihar, currently led by CM Nitish Kumar, who switched to the Mahagathbandhan twice in between for brief periods. The veteran socialist leader's record of governance and welfare schemes remained a key issue in the election. PM Narendra Modi's image and campaigning were also a major part of the NDA's strategy.What Tejashwi promisedA much younger Tejashwi Yadav, son of Nitish's onetime political partner Lalu Yadav, was declared the CM face by the RJD-Congress' Mahagathbandhan. Tejashwi has sought to pitch himself as the big changemaker — even promising a job in each family. Strategist-turned-leader Prashant Kishor presented himself as an alternative to entrenched politics.Caste remained a factor in promises, ticket distribution and general sway among voters, for all parties.EC prep and security for Bihar vote countThe Election Commission (EC) has secured all EVMs and VVPATs under a double-lock system inside strong rooms. These premises are guarded by a two-tier security cover, with central paramilitary on the inner rung and state police on the outer.Continuous CCTV surveillance is maintained at the 46 counting centres.Exit polls' near-consensusMost exit polls predicted a comfortable win for the JD(U)-BJP-led NDA, forecasting a range of 121–209 seats against a majority mark of 122 seats. Most exit polls had the minimum or median figure for the NDA beyond the majority mark.RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav rejected these predictions, asserting that the Mahagathbandhan would form the government with a "thumping majority" based on his party’s internal feedback. Exit polls have been off the mark in 2020. In 2015, they predicted the right winner but were far from the final numbers.What about the ‘PK factor’? None of the exit polls gave Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, despite a much-hyped debut, more than five seats. PK has anyway said his party would either form the government or stay below 10.He sought to fight the election on the plank of youth issues and unemployment at large. There were early theories that he could be the kingmaker if the assembly verdict is not decisive.Preferred CM face: A twist Despite predicting an NDA victory, at least two major pollsters (Axis My India and People’s Pulse) showed that RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav was the “most preferred candidate for chief minister”. Axis My India projected 34% approval for Tejashwi, compared to 22% for incumbent Nitish Kumar.What historic voter turnout could meanBihar registered a record high voter turnout of nearly 67% overall, its highest in all elections so far after Independence. Historically, a big increase in turnout has preceded a change in government at least three times in Bihar, reports have noted. This potentially creates an electoral risk for the incumbent NDA.‘Truck loaded with EVMs’ vs empty boxesThe RJD made sharp allegations of “vote theft”, claiming a truck “allegedly loaded with EVMs” sneaked into the Sasaram counting center without notice. The party also demanded the release of footage, alleging that CCTV feeds were "switched off" from 2 PM. Rohtas district magistrate Udita Singh officially refuted the RJD's EVM allegation, and showed that the truck had “empty steel boxes”, not EVMs.How Nepal and Gen-Z protest made entry tooAhead of the count, Bihar DGP Vinay Kumar ordered an FIR against RJD MLC Sunil Singh for making "undesirable and inflammatory statements". The RJD leader had said that “if the public mandate is stolen”, people would “take to the streets”, citing scenes witnessed in countries like Nepal and Bangladesh where Gen-Z or young citizens forced a change. Sunil Singh was speaking on the same issue that Tejashwi Yadav also raised.Tejashwi alleged that the NDA would attempt to "slow down the vote count", for instance, and would "murder democracy" by creating fear using tactics like military flag marches.NDA’s confidence and laddoosNDA leaders, buoyed by the exit polls, were highly confident of victory, claiming the alliance will outperform the predictions. Reflecting this belief, BJP workers in Patna have already ordered 501 kilograms of laddoos to be prepared and distributed as “prasad” on counting day.Victory processions are banned at least in Patna, in view of potential law-and-order issues.