Carney government faces crucial confidence vote on budget

force & political relation | Carney's budget faces important trust vote

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As we mentioned earlier, there was a way for the budget to pass without a recorded vote.

Motions can pass “on division” if MPs essentially agree to disagree. But as long as one MP from a party with recognized status asks for a recorded vote, it happens.

Liberal whip Mark Gerretsen asked for the recorded vote, which suggests his party is fairly confident it will make it through.

The bells are ringing in West Block — which means a vote is imminent.

In the House, the “division bells” are tolled to signal MPs to get to the chamber to vote.

They’ll ring for about 30 minutes before the voting starts.

I'm really curious to see how the Conservative votes will shake out tonight.

As I reported late last month, Conservative sources tell me the party brass do not want an election right now, especially with Carney leading in most public opinion polls.

But Poilievre and seemingly all of his MPs are also diametrically opposed to voting for this budget.

That's left them between a rock and a hard place.

There have been some conversations between the Conservatives, NDP and Bloc in the weeks leading up to this vote — and there was chatter among them about possible abstentions, which would give the Liberal government some breathing room.

So, there is a chance we see some Conservative MPs simply not vote.

The party has said MP Shannon Stubbs is dealing with a health issue — she might sit out tonight's vote, as she did two weeks ago with the first round of voting on this budget.

And then there's Matt Jeneroux, who abruptly announced he's quitting politics after he was rumoured to be crossing the floor. Will Jeneroux vote or sit it out? He didn’t vote the last time this budget was before MPs.

With May voting yes, the government needs just one more MP to join her and the 169 Liberals.

Or, alternatively, they could secure the vote with two abstentions — potentially from the Conservatives.

Carney and his government appear to be operating under the assumption that the budget passes tonight.

The prime minister and some members of his cabinet have meetings and events scheduled for tomorrow — suggesting that they think it will be business as usual.

Carney himself is expected to meet with Sweden's King Carl XVI Gustaf tomorrow before jetting off for a bilateral meeting in the United Arab Emirates — and then to South Africa for the G20 later this week.

Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand is also scheduled to meet the Swedish king tomorrow — and Industry Minister Mélanie Joly has an announcement regarding Canada's space sector.

With question period over, MPs are back to debating the main budget motion.

The motion as worded says “That this House approve in general the budgetary policy of the government.”

Fairly straightforward.

MPs will continue to debate the motion in the House until voting time.

My colleague Marina von Stackelberg tells me she just spoke to NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice.

Apparently the NDP won’t announce how it intends to vote ahead of time — meaning we won’t know if the budget will pass or fail until the New Democrat votes are being counted.

The party’s interim leader, Don Davies, is scheduled to hold a news conference right after the vote, according to a release that just landed in my inbox.

We’ve been diligently keeping a vote tally to try to figure out what needs to happen for the budget to pass.

Carney seems less concerned.

The prime minister offered a cheeky response: “More people are going to vote for it than against it.”

A few weeks back — just before the budget was tabled — I interviewed Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin and May back-to-back on Power & Politics.

I asked Dabrusin if the government was still committed to meeting the ambitious emissions reduction targets set by the last government — 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.

She gave me a fuzzy answer and was noncommittal.

May popped up right after and said she was leaning toward a "no" vote on this budget given what she was hearing from Dabrusin and the government on climate.

Today, the prime minister was definitive in question period — the government is committed to driving down emissions and protecting nature. That seems to have sufficiently reassured May and pushed her over to the yes column.

This was far from a guaranteed outcome — May also told us just yesterday she would likely be voting against this budget.

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