What lies ahead for France's billionaire Bolloré family ahead of final verdict?

France's highest civic margaret court, the Cour de Cassation, is go down to save a ruling on fri that could compel the billionaire Bolloré family to launch a multibillion-euro buyout offer for minority shareholders of Vivendi.

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The court's decision will follow a hearing scheduled for Wednesday and will decide whether the Bollorés breached French stock market rules by exercising "de facto control" of Vivendi without triggering a mandatory buyout offer.

The argument began at the time of Vivendi's 2024 breakup, which spun off its Canal , Havas, and Louis Hachette businesses. While the split won the approval of 97% of shareholders, minority investors claimed it unfairly increased the Bolloré family's influence.

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Under French law, shareholders surpassing a 30% ownership threshold must launch a buyout offer. Although Bolloré SE directly owns only 29.9% of Vivendi, the Paris Court of Appeal ruled in April 2025 that the family exercised effective control of the company due to their larger influence over it, and that the treasury shares of Vivendi should be counted as theirs, surpassing the 30% threshold.

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This interpretation - key to the case - raised questions about how "de facto control" should be evaluated under French commercial law, whether by strictly considering voting rights or taking into account broader influence over the company.

The case was initiated by activist investor CIAM, which appealed to France's financial markets regulator (AMF) in 2024, arguing that the Bolloré group controlled Vivendi.

While the AMF initially sided with the Bollorés, the Paris Court of Appeal overturned this decision in April 2025 and ordered a mandatory buyout.

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In July 2025, the AMF directed Bolloré to draft a takeover and withdrawal plan within six months, pending the outcome of the Cour de Cassation appeal.

If the court sides against Bolloré, the family could be required to implement one of France's largest buyouts since the government nationalised utility EDF in 2022.

Potential costs have been estimated between 6 billion and 9 billion euros ($6.9 billion-10.4 billion).

A negative outcome for Bolloré could also prompt asset sales, including its 18% stake in Universal Music Group (UMG.AS).

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman, a significant UMG shareholder, warned last week that ongoing uncertainty had weighed on UMG's shares, which have fallen 25% year-to-date.

A Bolloré victory would nullify the buyout obligation, with the court's advocate general recommending to overturn the appellate ruling.

CIAM expressed frustration at the potential for an unfavorable decision and vowed to escalate the matter to the European Court of Human Rights if necessary.

Vincent Bolloré stepped down as chairman of Bolloré SE in February 2022, ceding leadership to his sons Cyrille and Yannick Bolloré.

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