4.3mn SIR cuts likely in Raj, urban hubs may be most hit

ALabialize 4.3 billion names power be excised by the special intensive rescript of electoral rolls in Rajasthan with the highest deletions potential in the urban hubs of Jaipur, Jodhpur and Kota, data shared by the election commission showed on Monday.The controversial SIR was conducted in 199 of the 200 assembly constituencies in the state, with the exception of Anta where a byelection was held. The draft electoral roll for the state will be published on Tuesday and the final roll in February 2026.The possible number of deletions, 4.3 million out of the 54.7 million electors on the roll on October 27, represents a percentage of 7.9%, similar to the 8% deletions seen in Bihar after the SIR earlier this year. These 4.3 million electors are those from whom the Election Commission of India (ECI) could not collect the enumeration form because they were either found dead, permanently shifted, or absent during the enumeration phase of the exercise according to the state’s chief electoral officer (CEO) Naveen Mahajan.“The survey was conducted since November 4 across all the 52,222 polling booths at 199 constituencies in 41 districts of Rajasthan. The first draft roll has been finalised and tomorrow it will be published on the website of the CEO Rajasthan along with the websites of district electoral officers. A copy of the draft will also be provided to the political parties,” Mahajan said.“Following the publication, everybody will get a one-month window to raise claims and objections on the draft while the department will also issue notice to the ones who remained unmapped to the 2002 SIR list and will have to provide documents,” he added.To be sure, among the 50.3 million people whom ECI did reach, 1.5 million did not map themselves to the 2002 SIR. These electors will be issued notices and asked to submit documents to ascertain their eligibility as an elector. If these electors are also counted as vulnerable to deletion in the final roll, 10.7% electors in total will be seen as vulnerable to deletion in the final roll.A district-wise analysis shows that the proportion of electors who were found dead, shifted, or absent is the highest in Jaipur, Jodhpur, and Kota. Forms could not be collected from 12%, 11.5%, and 10.9% of electors in these districts. This proportion is the lowest in Barmer, Hanumangarh, and Jaisalmer, where forms could not be collected from 4.1%, 5%, and 5% electors.If one adds up electors who could not map themselves to the 2002 roll, the proportion of total vulnerable electors is the highest in the same three districts -- Jaipur, Jodhpur, and Kota – but the proportion rises to 19.4%, 15.5%, and 14.6%, respectively. This number is the lowest in Barmer, Phalodi, and Deeg, where 5%,6.2%, and 6.6% electors, respectively, are vulnerable.As this data suggests, there appears to be some correlation between the proportion of electors vulnerable and the urban population share in a district in the 2011 census. The more urban districts are somewhat more likely to have electors who did not submit their enumeration forms or could not map themselves to the 2002 roll. This correlation decreases when one is only looking at people who did not submit their enumeration forms. To be sure, this exercise could only be carried out after merging some districts – such as Ajmer, Pali, Rajasmand, and Bhilwara – because some new districts were reorganised from more than one 2011 census district.The Congress said it suspected that many names have been wrongfully removed. “Our BLAs are on alert. They will get the draft rolls from every booth and will review every single voter whose name has been removed. We will not let BJP to delete anyone’s name unlawfully,” Congress spokesperson Swarnim Chaturvedi said.