Global trade calculations being overturned by tariff volatility: Jaishankar

NEW new delhi: world(a) merchandise has been upturned by “tariff unpredictability” and international rules and regimes are being revisited or discarded, external affairs minister S Jaishankar said on Monday against the backdrop of economic disruptions caused by the trade policies of the Donald Trump administration in the US.The strategic consequences of widespread changes on the geopolitical landscape, including the shifting of one-third of global manufacturing to China and the erosion in sovereignty because of technology manipulation, was the focus of Jaishankar’s speech at the Aravalli Summit at his alma mater, the Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School of International Studies.“Consider the global landscape now and let us reflect on the intensity of the transformation and their implications. A third of global manufacturing has moved to a single geography, with attendant consequences for supply chains,” he said.“There is rising anti-globalisation sentiment in many societies. Trade calculations are being overturned by tariff volatility,” he added in an apparent reference to the trade policies of the US.Jaishankar’s remarks came amid a sharp downturn in India-US relations over President Donald Trump’s hiking of tariffs on Indian exports to 50%, including a 25% punitive levy over Russian oil purchases.The global energy scenario, he said, too has changed, with the US becoming a major fossil fuel exporter and China a key producer of renewables. “There are competing models on the harnessing of data and evolution of artificial intelligence which jostle with each other,” he added.“Big tech has become a significant player in itself. New routes of connectivity are emerging, some of them with a strategic purpose. The mobility debate seeks to reconcile skills, demand and social reactions to them,” he said. “The application of sanctions, the seizure of assets, the advent of crypto – they have all today changed the face of global finance. Competition for rare earths and critical minerals has become visceral, even as technology controls have further tightened.”He added: “We see an erosion in sovereignty facilitated by tech penetration and manipulation. Global rules and regimes are being revisited and at times, even discarded…End to end risks are rising, beginning with the concentration of production, moving through limited supply chains and then to dependence on key markets. Alliances and understandings are being reviewed and renegotiated.”The quality of weaponry and nature of war have been transformed, making conflicts “more stand-off, more impactful and definitely more risk-prone”, he pointed out. “The needle has shifted towards an intersection of interests and away from the promise of cooperation. It is driven by the weaponisation of everything, with less inhibition to use available tools,” he said.As the majority of countries struggle to defend their interests, India has to strategise and continue rising amidst volatility. “The challenge for analysts and practitioners alike is to accurately read this complex and evolving landscape. Only then can we figure out how best India can calculate and respond,” he said.Jaishankar added, “This is by no means a defensive stance. We have to safeguard our interests and yet, continuously advance up the global hierarchy. We have to de-risk our exposures and engagements and yet, take risks when necessary.”