Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic, US Open semifinal showdown: High stakes, bold predictions, who takes it all?

Novak Djokovic isn't ready to make it the baton just yet. Two years ago, on the very same Arthur Ashe Stadium, he lifted his 24th career Grand Slam trophy. While the sight reaffirmed his status as the tennis GOAT, experts began speculating on the number at which his major tally would eventually stop. But age, fitness, and the Next Gen soon caught up. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner shared the next seven Slams, seemingly ending the reign of the last surviving member of the Big Three. Most now expect the trend to continue, with another Alcaraz versus Sinner final in New York, as seen at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. But Djokovic isn't ready to wave the white flag yet.

"Everybody is probably expecting and anticipating the finals between two of them," Djokovic said after his quarterfinal win against Taylor Fritz on Tuesday. "I'm going to try to, you know, mess up the plans of most of the people."

And the Serb will have the chance to crash the party when he takes on Alcaraz in the much-awaited semifinal on Friday in New York. The winner will take on one between defending champion Jannik Sinner and No. 25 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, who will play in the second semifinal on the same day, in the final.

The semifinal showdown at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre will be the ninth career meeting between Djokovic and Alcaraz. The 38-year-old leads 5-3 in the rivalry, having won both the previous two meetings - the gold medal match at the Paris Olympics last year and the Australian Open quarterfinal earlier this year in January.

The two, however, share two each in their four Slam meetings. Alcaraz had won both in the Wimbledon final in 2023 and 2024, while Djokovic won their first meeting in a major in the 2023 Roland Garros semifinal.

After his last Grand Slam win, in New York, Djokovic had a rare calendar year in 2024, during which he failed to win a single title—his first since 2017. Although the drought eventually ended midway through the 2024 season, he admitted that at 38, it is the Slams that he cares most about.

On Monday, after his quarterfinal win, Djokovic said that he is "dreaming" of a "full-circle" moment in the Big Apple, which would cap off his "greatest achievement" thus far—the historic 25th career major—a feat that would put him past Margaret Court. He said, "I'm dreaming about winning another Slam, and it would be amazing if I do it here. The last Grand Slam I won was here, actually, two years ago. So it would be a nice kind of journey in the last couple of years - to kind of close the circle here again would be great."

Alcaraz, on the other hand, is on an 11-match winning streak, including the Cincinnati title. He has the world No. 1 ranking in sight. A sixth career Grand Slam and second at the US Open could see him surpass Sinner to reclaim the spot.

Despite a reduced appearance this season, Djokovic has made each of the Slam semifinals. But he also hasn't won a set thereafter. Both in the Australian Open and Wimbledon, he struggled with injuries. He retired after going down in the opening set against Alexander Zverev in Melbourne, and struggled with hip and groin injury during his semifinal against Sinner in London. It was only in Paris, where he was in his best shape, and yet had no answer to the Italian's masterclass of a show.

Djokovic has shown signs of struggles throughout the tournament in New York this time, where he has been pushed to four sets in three of his matches, and hence admitted he was grateful to get an extra day off before the semifinal against Alcaraz.

"I'm going to try to take one day at a time, really take care of my body, try to relax and recover," Djokovic said after beating Taylor Fritz. "The next couple of days is really key for me to really get my body in shape and ready to battle five sets if it's needed.

"I just would really love that, would love to be fit enough to play -- and to play potentially five sets with Carlos. I know that my best tennis is going to be required, but I'd rise to the occasion."

But Djokovic would be thankful that Alcaraz will be on the other side of the court, not Sinner. Despite knowing the raw physicality that Alcaraz brings to the court, the Serb knows the key to cracking that code, as was witnessed in Melbourne this year. He smothered Alcaraz in bruising baseline duels, denying him any chance to unleash his flair with relentless depth and pace. The four-setter was packed with absorbing rallies, but the outcome was ultimately shaped by the control the 24-time Grand Slam champion imposed. The win also left Djokovic unbeaten on hard courts against the 22-year-old.

However, none has been as dominant as Alcaraz over the last one month in the North American hard-court swing. After the win in Cincinnati in mid-August, Alcaraz has not dropped a set in New York, and has faced just one tiebreak in the five matches thus far. In addition, he has won a jaw-dropping 99 per cent of his service games at the 2025 US Open.

If Djokovic hopes to "mess up" Alcaraz's plans, the 2023 champion has his own motivation: "revenge."

With the two set to clash in the first semifinal, the daytime conditions tilt slightly in Alcaraz’s favour. His biggest edge, however, will come if he can drag Djokovic into extended rallies and turn the contest into a battle of endurance.

Prediction: Alcaraz.

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