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Prime Minister Mark Carney's minority government could become a majority if the party's candidates win at least one of three byelections in Ontario and Quebec tonight.

Five politicians from other parties have crossed the floor in recent months to bring the reigning party's seat count to 171 — just one shy of a majority.

Victories in either University-Rosedale or Scarborough Southwest, two Toronto ridings the Liberals won comfortably less than a year ago, would bring the party to the 172 they need to form a majority. At that point, the government could have some assurance of its ability to at least survive any confidence votes in the House.

A win in both Ontario ridings would bring the Liberals to 173 seats. At that point, the Liberals could gain a majority on House committees and have a freer hand to advance legislation without having to negotiate compromises with the opposition.

Getting to a majority would also be, by any measure, a historic achievement for Carney and the Liberals, particularly given the prime minister was a private citizen 16 months ago and the Liberals were polling 20 points behind the Conservatives.

Polls close at 8:30 p.m. ET.

- Aaron Wherry and Rhianna Schmunk

Four candidates in downtown Toronto's University-Rosedale riding campaigned to replace former cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland. The Liberals ran family physician Dr. Danielle Martin and the NDP have Serena Purdy, a PhD candidate at the University of Toronto. The Conservatives put Don Hodgson on the ballot, while the Greens are represented by Andrew Massey.

In Scarborough Southwest, the Liberals are represented by former Ontario NDP deputy leader Doly Begum after she left her role in the provincial legislature to run. Fatima Shaban is running for the NDP, the Conservatives are represented by Diana Filipova and Pooja Malhotra is the candidate for the Greens.

Terrebonne, a suburb north of Montreal, is playing host to a rematch between the Liberals' Tatiana Auguste and the Bloc Québécois's Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné.

Elections Canada had declared Auguste the winner over Sinclair-Desgagné by a single vote after a judicial recount.

But the Bloc candidate challenged the results after a supporter complained that she had tried to vote by mail using a special ballot that was never counted. Sinclair-Desgagné lost in Superior Court, but later won the case at the Supreme Court of Canada — triggering a byelection.

The Conservatives are running Adrienne Charles, the NDP is represented by Maxime Beaudoin and the Green Party by Benjamin Rankin.

Sunday Scrum | Liberals move closer to a majority, Conservatives react to latest defection

Prime Minister Mark Carney's minority government could become a majority if the party's candidates win at least one of three byelections in Ontario and Quebec tonight.

Five politicians from other parties have crossed the floor in recent months to bring the reigning party's seat count to 171 — just one shy of a majority.

Victories in either University-Rosedale or Scarborough Southwest, two Toronto ridings the Liberals won comfortably less than a year ago, would bring the party to the 172 they need to form a majority. At that point, the government could have some assurance of its ability to at least survive any confidence votes in the House.

A win in both Ontario ridings would bring the Liberals to 173 seats. At that point, the Liberals could gain a majority on House committees and have a freer hand to advance legislation without having to negotiate compromises with the opposition.

Getting to a majority would also be, by any measure, a historic achievement for Carney and the Liberals, particularly given the prime minister was a private citizen 16 months ago and the Liberals were polling 20 points behind the Conservatives.

Polls close at 8:30 p.m. ET.

- Aaron Wherry and Rhianna Schmunk

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