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Polls close in byelections that could deliver Carney a majority government

Posted on: Jun 03, 2025 13:31 IST | Posted by: Cbc
Polls close in byelections that could deliver Carney a majority government

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Taking the temperature in Terrebonne, Que., as advance voting wraps up in federal byelection

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Liberals poised to secure majority. How did we get here?

Prime Minister Mark Carney's minority government could become a majority if the party's candidates win at least one of three byelections tonight.

The polls closed at 8:30 p.m. ET in all three ridings.

Victories in either University-Rosedale or Scarborough Southwest, two Toronto ridings the Liberals won comfortably less than a year ago, would bring the Liberals to the 172 they need to form a majority. At that point, the government could have some assurance of its ability to at least survive any confidence votes in the House.

A win in both Ontario ridings would bring the Liberals to 173 seats. At that point, the Liberals could gain a majority on House committees and have a freer hand to advance legislation without having to negotiate compromises with the opposition.

Getting to a majority would also be, by any measure, a historic achievement for Carney and the Liberals, particularly given the prime minister was a private citizen 16 months ago and the Liberals were polling 20 points behind the Conservatives.

It's 8:30 p.m. ET, meaning polls have closed in the three federal byelection ridings. We now wait for the results to trickle in. Giddy-up.

People are starting to fill the space at the Bloc Québécois HQ. Chattering fills the room as people grab drinks from a mini bar and take photos in front of the Bloc banner. I'm also seeing some political figures in the room. 

Former Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe is mingling with voters and giving interviews to the media, and Parti Québécois' provincial MNA for Terrebonne, Catherine Gentilcore, has also arrived. 

We've still got some ways to go before polls close, so the space is quite empty. Those involved with Begum's campaign are roving around with extension cords, setting up TVs and decorating the front stage.

On my commute over, I saw many lawn signs for the candidates. Some blocks were fully decked out in red, orange, blue and green.

Elections Canada is already cautioning that results in Terrebonne might be delayed due to the long ballot protest.

"The higher than usual number of candidates may slow down the ballot counting process," the election body said in a social media post earlier this evening.

"Results will be available tonight or early tomorrow. Thank you for your patience."

The write-in ballots are meant to avoid lengthy delays. Let's see how it goes tonight.

The doors have not yet opened to the public, but everyone here is getting ready to welcome a crowd. Quebec flags are scattered on tables and blue lights are illuminating the scene. 

Well-known Québécois songs from bands like Les Cowboys Fringants are blasting over the speakers.

I'm reporting from the Liberal gathering in Terrebonne tonight.

Tatiana Auguste, the Liberal candidate in Terrebonne, has not arrived here at their venue, Restaurant Le Shaker, (yet) but party volunteers have started filling the venue with pictures of her and Carney.

Some 300 volunteers fanned out across this battleground riding today, according to a party spokesperson, while 750 of them have been knocking on doors since the start of the byelection campaign.

The Terrebonne vote is expected to be a tight contest between the Liberals and the Bloc. But Carney's party has an advantage when it comes to promoting its candidate.

According to Elections Canada's rules, all parties have caps on how much they can spend promoting candidates during byelections. But the cap for a party increases if they're running candidates in multiple ridings at the same time.

"A party with candidates in more than one electoral district may distribute its election expenses limit among the electoral districts as it sees fit," Elections Canada's website says.

Because the two Toronto ridings are in safe Liberal territory, the party has likely focused its funds in the Montreal suburb.

The Bloc — which has never run a candidate outside of Quebec — will have a lower spending cap because they are only running in one of the three ridings.

A group of electoral reform advocates have again flooded a byelection with dozens of candidates, this time in Terrebonne.

While the Longest Ballot Committee has managed to register as many as 200 candidates in past byelections, there are less than half that many this time around.

A total of 48 candidates are registered in Terrebonne. But rather than printing mammoth-sized ballots to accommodate all the names as it has in the past, Elections Canada is opting for a write-in special ballot in this byelection.

Instead of making a mark beside their candidate of choice, electors write the name of their preferred candidate on the blank ballot. The same method is used in every election for voters who cast their ballots outside of designated voting days.

A list of candidates names are provided at polling stations, and making a spelling error doesn't mean a vote isn't counted. What matters is that the voter's intention is clear.

Lengthy ballots have caused counting delays in past byelections. Elections Canada opted for a write-in ballot in the last byelection where the long ballot protesters organized. Elections Canada CEO Stéphane Perrault told an MP committee that the write-in option "was a better experience for the voters in general" compared to metre-long ballots.

Taking the temperature in Terrebonne, Que., as advance voting wraps up in federal byelection

Monday marked the last day of advance voting in the Terrebonne, Que., byelection that, along with two more in Toronto, could result in a federal majority government.

Some 37,900 people voted at advance polls in the three byelections, according to preliminary figures from Elections Canada. 

Advance polling was open for four days over Easter weekend. 

The hotly contested Terrebonne riding saw the highest turnout of the three with 18,200 ballots cast, followed by Scarborough Southwest (10,300) and University-Rosedale (9,400).

Floor-crossing has always been a feature of Canadian politics dating back to the first Parliament, but it's still rare to see opposition MPs jump ship to join the government in a matter of months. John A. Macdonald, Robert Borden and Jean Chrétien attracted a swath of MPs to their respective governments, though all under vastly different circumstances.

Macdonald holds the distinction for welcoming the most MPs into his government during a session. Nine opposition members crossed the floor to sit in Canada's first prime minister's caucus, including five who crossed on the same day in 1869. Borden, who served as prime minister during the First World War, got a total of 17 MPs to join his ranks — though only one crossed the floor in the middle of a parliamentary session.

During Chrétien's decade in office, eight MPs from the opposition benches joined his government. As in Carney's case, the new MPs came from multiple parties, including the NDP, the Progressive Conservatives and even the Canadian Alliance (formerly the Reform Party).

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