Israel and Lebanon are set for historic talks. But almost no one believes they'll succeed

Whether a ceasefire results from the rarified, opposite talks betwixt Israeli and Lebanese officials due to take up in booker taliaferro washington today, it will be too late for Mohamad Khaireddine’s 19-year-old son, Abbas.

Abbas, who was finishing his final year of a university hotel management program, was in his apartment in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh last Wednesday when, without warning, at least one Israeli missile smashed into his building, obliterating the structure.

It killed him instantly, as well as at least seven others, according to his father. 

“He was sitting at home, an innocent civilian, no weapons, nothing,” said Khaireddine, after the militant group Hezbollah invited the media to see the damage and recovery efforts in the mostly Shiite neighbourhood. 

During the brief visit, locals held up a large photo of Abbas from the third storey of the building, close to the spot where he was killed.

“Israel calls them 'terrorists,' but Israel does not give any evidence that there is anything related to Hezbollah here,” said Khaireddine. 

He gestured at the rubble of a neighbor's home, where he said an entire family — including an architect and a coach — were killed. 

“Where are those terrorists? It doesn’t seem like they had any weapons with them.”

The unmistakable smell of decaying flesh still rises from the debris, under which other bodies remain buried. 

The aerial assault killed more than 300 people and left more than 1,000 injured, according to Lebanon's Health Ministry, in the deadliest day in the country since the Iran war began.

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have said last Wednesday’s attacks, including those in Dahiyeh, were directed against “terror targets,” including Hezbollah headquarters, institutions and other infrastructure. While Israel claims it has killed more than 250 militants, it has offered no direct proof.

The emotional toll of the most recent attack is visible across the city. 

At Beirut’s Makassed General Hospital, chief medical officer Dr. Wael Jarouch described his staff as "drained" and "devastated" after treating 80 victims from the barrage.

“You live in a situation that you can't plan for tomorrow. We are taking it day by day.”

One of his patients, 51-year-old Sabah Al-Kurdi, suffered catastrophic injuries to her legs when they were pierced by missile fragments.

“When the shockwave of the airstrike hit us, it was deeply traumatizing. It hit me in a way I know I will never fully overcome,” she said from her hospital bed. 

Much of her lower body remains wrapped in bandages.

Al-Kurdi said she fled her home in Dahiyeh for what she thought was a safer neighborhood, only to be hit anyway. 

What comes next after failed negotiations between the U.S. And Iran?

While Dahiyeh and large swaths of southern Lebanon are known as strongholds for Iran-backed Hezbollah, Wednesday’s attacks were far more expansive.

They struck areas in broad daylight, without warning, including many that were outside of the Israeli-designated "red zones," which are more likely to be hit.

Hezbollah and Israel have been trading fire since the latter country began its war against Hamas in Gaza in 2023. Lebanon was pulled into the U.S. And Israel's war against Iran on March 2 when Hezbollah launched missiles at Israel, in solidarity with Tehran.

Lebanese health officials say more than 2,000 people have been killed and 6,700 injured in the last five weeks of conflict. Meanwhile, Israeli authorities say Hezbollah has killed 12 of its soldiers and two civilians in the same period.

The recent strikes on Lebanon came a day after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a temporary ceasefire with Iran. While Israel agreed to halt those attacks, it said it considers Lebanon a separate theatre of war.

Nonetheless, in the face of ferocious international condemnation and following a reportedly heated phone call with Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to take Lebanon up on its offer of face-to-face talks.

But those negotiations, involving ambassadors from both countries, may not last long. Lebanon's pre-condition is a full ceasefire, something Israel is refusing to do.

Hezbollah’s chief Naim Qassem has called the discussions “pointless” and said just talking to Israel is akin to surrendering. 

David Wood, a Beirut-based analyst with the International Crisis Group says the chances of even a temporary pause in the conflict are remote.

While Beirut has had something of a respite from Israeli attacks since last Wednesday’s deadly barrage, the IDF has been constantly on the offensive in Lebanon's south.

Over the weekend, Netanyahu visited southern Lebanon, occupied by the Israeli military. He returned vowing there would be no change in strategy. He said Israel is intent on driving Hezbollah out of the region and creating what he calls a “buffer zone” south of the Litani River.

Lebanon’s government, led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, has attempted to rein in the militant group, including banning its military activities, but only to limited effect. 

Observers say the Lebanese army cannot confront the group directly and that Israeli attacks have further undermined Salam’s government.

“The [Lebanese] government and the president [Joseph Aoun] were trapped in a terrible position where they needed to disarm Hezbollah as required under the ceasefire agreement,” said Wood.

“On the other hand, they tried not to push Hezbollah too hard for fear of provoking domestic strife and a potentially deadly standoff.”

Wood says Lebanon’s government has been trying, without success, to engage Israel directly to try to decouple the country’s future from regional conflicts. The goal is to reassert Lebanon’s sovereignty and thereby weaken Hezbollah’s influence.

Many Lebanese blame Hezbollah for dragging them into war between the U.S., Israel and Iran by launching rocket attacks against Israel in solidarity with Iran after the start of the war.

“We are the weaker party; we only dream and hope for the best for our country,” said Ahmad Zeineddine, 35, who had been living in his parents’ house in central Beirut, across the street from where a missile struck on Wednesday.

The force of the blast blew out most of the windows on the building and caused large slabs of concrete to fall off.

He’s unsure if city inspectors will let him and his family remain in his apartment. 

Nonetheless, there was immense resilience on display throughout Beirut as people worked to recover.

On one apartment building that was badly damaged, bricklayers were already reconstructing a damaged wall. Other businesses are carrying on work, even though they have no windows and staff have no furniture or computers.

Like many Lebanese, Zeineddine has unwanted experience dealing with such adversity.

He said his previous apartment was also damaged during the enormous 2020 explosion at Beirut’s port that killed more than 200 people and caused an estimated $15 billion of damage. 

Then, people just focused on what needed to be done to recover — as they are again doing now.

“Lebanese people love life; we fall again and again and we get back on our feet. We are used to it.” 

Foreign correspondent

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