What is delimitation exercise, concerns over North vs South and why is Oppn against it | Explained

THe regime is go down to start the work out to redraw constituencies and increment Lok Sabha seats to 850 from the current 543 in a bid to ensure one-third reservation for women in Parliament and the population growth over the decades.The Centre will constitute a new Delimitation Commission to carry out the exercise, which is most likely to conclude before the next General Elections in 2029. The last such exercise was conducted in 2002, however, only the boundaries were changed keeping the total number of seats as constant.On Wednesday, the government unveiled three bills, including the Constitution Amendment Bill and the Delimitation Bill, through which the process to carve out new seats and redefine the borders of the existing ones would be carried out. The delimitation exercise would be based on the 2011 census, as the one set to begin this week will take another year to complete.The three bills are set to be brought in the Parliament in an extended Budget Session that has been convened from April 16 to 18.What is delimitation and why is it necessary?Delimitation is a routine exercise and is carried out every few decades by carving out new seats and deciding their boundaries to ensure that the states get their due representation with growing population. The latest exercise if the fifth such exercise.The first delimitation was carried out in 1952, based on the 1951 census allotting 494 Lok Sabha seats. Similar exercises were carried out in 1963 and 1973. During the 1973 exercise, based on 1971 census data, the number of seats were fixed at 543, while the population of the country was 54.8 crore.In the last revision in 2002, while the seats remained unchanged, only their boundaries were redefined as mentioned earlier.Going by the last official census data of 2011, the population has doubled since 1971, requiring a redistribution among states.While some constituencies, both in North and South India, have 2-3 million voters, others like Lakshadweep, Daman & Diu or Ladakh have 47,972, 1,02,260 and 1,59,949 voters, respectively.What post-delimitation Lok Sabha looks likeAccording to the government proposal, reviewed by HT, the number of Lok Sabha seats would be increased from 543 to 850, with a bulk going to the North. While 815 of these seats will go for the states, another 35 are earmarked for the Union Territories.The delimitation will also operationalise one-third reservation for women in Parliament, a long-pending plan approved in 2023. Under the new framework, the reserved seats for women will be allotted by rotation.The biggest point of contest around the exercise is a North vs South divide, with North India with significant population growth benefitting with more proportionate seats, while South India — a significant contributor to the GDP (around 30–31%) — getting its proportionate seats reduced over lesser population growth rate.Going by the government's proposal, the biggest gainers would be Uttar Pradesh (UP), Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Maharashtra. On the other hands, the laggards are Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh (+Telangana), Odisha, and West Bengal.While, UP will see the rise of Lok Sabha seats from 80 to 140, Bihar's seats will rise from 40 to 73, Rajasthan from 25 to 48, and MP from 29 to 51.Interestingly, all the top gainers are currently ruled by BJP-led NDA.The seats of Tamil Nadu will increase from 39 to 51, while that of Kerala from 20 to 23, Andhra + Telangana from 42 to 59, while Odisha from 21 to 29, and West Bengal from 42 to 64. Barring Odisha and Andhra, all the top laggards are ruled by the opposition. NDA sources have told PTI news agency that the final number of seats will be determined by the Delimitation Commission and the bill does not specify an exact seat count. The sources added that the 850 figure only represents the upper limit of the total Lok Sabha seats.What Oppn said and fears of gerrymanderingThe opposition and leaders of Southern states were the first to flag concerns over the exercise, calling it "conspiracy" and attempt that could "alter political map".Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a public letter addressed to women, asserted that Indian democracy will become stronger and more vibrant if elections to the Lok Sabha and the various assemblies in 2029 are held with women's quota fully in place. Parties like Shiv Sena, BSP, AIADMK and others have backed the bills.However, the opposition has called for a "Hybrid Model" and hit out at the government for penalising the states with successful population control measures.Here is what the opposition leaders said:MK Stalin: Tamil Nadu chief minister M K Stalin alleged that the centre was trying to punish southern states that implemented population control initiatives. He further said that the Centre is planning to "enact as law its conspiracy in the matter". In a video message, he also warned of massive agitations and "protests with full force" if anything was done to harm the state or if the political power of northern states was disproportionately increased in delimitation. Stalin has also called for an emergency meeting of DMK MPs on Wednesday to discuss the impact of the exercise.Revanth Reddy: The Telangana CM has issued a formal appeal to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and chief ministers of the Southern states to reject a purely population-based expansion of Lok Sabha seats. In an open letter, Reddy warned that a "pro-rata" increase to 850 seats would penalise states for successful population control. He proposed a "Hybrid Model" that rewards economic contribution and developmental performance.Congress: Party's general secretary Jairam Ramesh has called the intent behind the bill as "mischievous" and said the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill is "extremely ill-timed". "When the intent behind a Bill is mischievous, and the content of it is devious, the extent of damage to parliamentary democracy is enormous. Under the garb of bringing forward women's reservations, the BJP is looking to bulldoze a deeply flawed, unconstitutional and anti-federal delimitation exercise," Ramesh said. Meanwhile, the Congress is also expected to hold a key meeting to formulate a joint strategy ahead of the special Parliament sitting this week.Left parties: Left leaders have also raised strong concerns and warned of a potential impact on India's federal structure and political balance. John Brittas, Rajya Sabha Leader of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), in a post on X said, "The bills being introduced in the name of implementing Women's Reservation amount to a death warrant for federal India."Shiv Sena (UBT): Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut raised strong objections to the proposed exercise and said it could alter the country's political map. He also warned of potential unrest among southern states. "Our party's stand is that under the guise of women's reservation, they are trying to change the political map of the country. But in this process, the map of the country will change. The way the southern states have signalled to the Central Government, I fear that under this pretext, a situation like Manipur might arise in the southern states," he told ANI. Gerrymandering concerns: Political activist Yogendra Yadav flagged gerrymandering concerns over the delimitation exercise and said the move is "basically to facilitate early delimitation and to expand the size of Lok Sabha to 815."