There's a big caste angle in women's quota, delimitation link: How OBCs and census come into picture, beyond South fears

WBiddy Leader of oppositeness Rahul indira nehru gandhi rosebush to talk in the Lok Sabha on Friday, he did not begin with the South-may-lose-seats argument that has dominated headlines since the delimitation bill linked to the women’s quota amendment was tabled. He began with a different charge entirely."This is not a bill for women. This has nothing to do with the empowerment of women," he said in the House.He then offered what he described as a “simple test”."Bring that old bill back right now and we will help you pass it for implementation from this second," he said.The "old bill" he was referring to is the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam already passed unanimously by both Houses in 2023. That provides for 33% reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies.It is to come into effect after the completion of the first census after its commencement. That would mean the much-delayed census that’s being done now, likely to be finished in 2027. After that census, there would be a delimitation commission to decide on the seats’ number and maps. That would push the women’s quota implementation beyond the 2029 election.Now, three new bills — Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, Delimitation Bill 2026, and UT Laws (Amendment) Bill 2026 — remove the ‘latest census’ stipulation.These bills propose a system by which the government, with a simple majority in Parliament, can decide to use any census; and order a delimitation for Lok Sabha and assembly seats. For now, the plan is limited to the Lok Sabha, the government's statements suggest.The government has argued that this tweak for now — to increase the seats by at least 50% — would lead to quicker implementation of the women's quota. Say, seats go up from 543 to 816; and that additional one-third can be reserved for women.But the Opposition has contended the 2023 women's quota law can be implemented instead. Congress leader Sonia Gandhi has said the party is fine with implementing it even in the current House strength of 543, without increasing it to 816, or up to a maximum 850 as the bills provide for.The Congress has alleged that the real purpose of the new bills is to trigger the delimitation sooner — with women's reservation being used as cover.Delimitation can't be ‘hastened’Originally, delimitation has been pushed forward for almost 50 years now, and is due after 2026.The whole redrawing of the electoral map, or delimitation, needs deeper consultation, because population alone cannot be the basis, Congress MP Shashi Tharoor said on Friday.There are indeed concerns, particularly among lower-population-growth states in the South, and caste groups that want a say before any delimitation is carried out.The argument is straight-line — that there are “no issues” with giving 33% women’s quota; but don’t hasten delimitation without addressing complex questions.One of those questions is about caste.A major allegation against the Modi regime is that the latest bills are designed to “sideline” the caste count being done as part of Census 2026-27.This is the first census that is counting all castes — SCs and STs are already counted — after almost 100 years. The Scheduled Castes and Tribes (SCs, STs) already get some quota in Parliament and assemblies.Numbers from this census can thus impact what, and how much, is given to the Other Backward Classes (OBCs). They are the largest chunk of India’s population by estimates so far.The OBC questionRahul Gandhi was explicit about this in the Lok Sabha: “What they (government) are trying to do is avoid giving power and representation to my OBC brothers and sisters.”He alleged, “The government is trying to make sure that the caste census has nothing to do with representation for the next 10-15 years.”He connected this to a specific chronology:The Union cabinet approved a caste census as part of the ongoing national census — the first such exercise since 1931 — last year.But the delimitation exercise, as proposed now by the latest bills, will use the 2011 census, not the new 2026-27 data that will come.Amit Shah has given a promise that there will be just a flat 50% hike in seats, with no change in states’ shares. But that’s not what the bills say.The Delimitation Bill 2026 says "the latest published census as on the date of the constitution of the Delimitation Commission" will be used, when the government of the day may decide. That for now means 2011, says analysis by the think tank PRS India.Samajwadi Party MP and former Uttar Pradesh CM Akhilesh Yadav, who comes from an OBC community, made the same point in Parliament on Thursday."They are running away from the census because… demand for reservations will rise," he said, “When we listen to the Prime Minister (Narendra Modi), he says he belongs to the Backward Classes. But when it comes to reservation, I would like to hear the government speak on how much is going to be reserved for the OBCs.” Amit Shah again underlined on Friday that PM Modi is from an OBC group.Constitutional gap existsThe demand for OBC quotas, even within women's reservation, is not new. It is, in fact, a primary reason why women's reservation remained blocked in Parliament for years. The 81st Constitutional Amendment Bill for 33% women's reservation was first introduced in 1996 under Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda. It was discussed again in 1997 and 1998, but lapsed each time.A 2008 bill during the Congress-led UPA time passed the Rajya Sabha test in 2010, but was never voted on in the Lok Sabha, as political consensus could not emerge. The reason, consistently, was the insistence of parties representing OBCs communities — such as the Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Janata Dal of UP and Bihar — that a sub-quota for OBC women be included.Women are not a homogenous group, and caste and other factors impact different sections of women differently, they have argued — as have political scientists.The legal issue is that, this demand for OBC quota cannot currently be met.The Constitution of India only provides for 15% and 7.5% reservation for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Tribes (STs). A Joint Parliamentary Committee had in the 1990s recommended that OBC reservation in women's quota be considered "once the Constitution is amended to permit OBC quota” at all.An amendment for OBC quota of any kind in Parliament and assemblies has never been made. Because, at the very least, that requires data. Specifically, the caste census data that would establish the demographic basis for such a claim.Why sequence mattersThe last time India counted caste comprehensively was in 1931, under the British.After Independence, PM Jawaharlal Nehru chose to exclude caste data from the decennial census, arguing it would entrench social divisions. SC and ST counts continued, but OBC enumeration stopped at the national level.In 1980, the Mandal Commission — working without hard data — estimated OBCs at 52% of India's population. That figure became the basis for the 27% OBC reservation in government jobs implemented in 1990 and related decisions thereafter.State-level surveys conducted in recent years suggest the data of over 50% OBCs may in fact be correct. Bihar's 2023 caste survey found that such classes are 63% of the state's population, while the General (“upper caste”) category share is just 15.5%. In local-level elections, OBCs have got quotas in Bihar and some other places. Telangana recently released its count, putting OBCs at over 60%.That’s a pattern showing that OBCs are substantially larger than the 27% job-quota figure.This was the Opposition's argument for a nationwide caste census. Rahul Gandhi had been demanding a caste count before the Modi regime relented last year."Detailed caste data might strengthen demands for proportional representation, especially from OBC communities, making seat redistribution far more contested,” said Manoj K Jha, a professor who is a Rajya Sabha MP from the RJD.Political scientist Zoya Hasan has argued that the BJP, which has carefully built an electoral grouping of its upper-caste base with some OBC groups, “reluctantly agreed to a caste census”.The 2011 census is “safer” for the BJP as a basis for delimitation, she said to The Wire, as that does not have OBC data. A caste count, as being done in the ongoing census, could “empower OBCs to demand more and possibly look beyond the BJP”."That could reshape political calculations, and potentially alter existing power balances," she has said.What the bills do not sayHome minister Amit Shah has told the Lok Sabha that the Union cabinet has approved a caste count already, and that such data will be collected in the second phase of the ongoing census.But the delimitation exercise, as the bills are written, will use the 2011 census.Both PM Modi and Amit Shah have alleged that the Opposition has been “using technical alibis” and “kintu-parantu” (if-but) as they “actually oppose the women’s quota”.But Rahul Gandhi has argued the Opposition's position in the House and on social media.He has noted that if delimitation happens first, using 2011 data, that would lock constituency boundaries and seat distributions for the foreseeable future. When the latest caste data comes later — with whatever it reveals about OBC size, and the case for political reservation — will arrive only after the map has already been redrawn. "The government is trying to make sure that the caste census has nothing to do with representation for the next 10-15 years," he said.Congress leaders have also noted that women's quota has already been okayed in 2023; but that questions of caste and regional representation cannot be wished away by tweaking laws.Priyanka Gandhi Vadra of the Congress jibed Amit Shah on Thursday by saying “everyone knows” his plan.Referring to a fabled royal adviser believed to have lived about 2,300 years ago, she said, “If Chanakya were alive, he would have been shocked by your political scheming,” as the House let out a collective chuckle. Amit Shah smiled too.“My sister achieved something in five minutes that I have not been able to in, maybe, 20 years of our political career,” Rahul Gandhi said in his speech on Friday, “which was to make Amit Shah ji smile.”For now, the government anyway did not have a two-thirds majority needed to pass a constitutional amendment. And it does not have support of the Opposition for its alleged “real” intentions. The debate won't stop. And then will come the caste data at some point in the next two years.