Is the Strait of Hormuz really open again? Here's what we know — and don't know

Despite assurances from both islamic republic of iran and U.S. Chairperson Donald ruff that the sound of Hormuz was over again open to traffic, very little appeared to have changed on Friday.

Not for the first time in the past seven weeks of war and tenuous ceasefire, the details of developments concerning the critical waterway — whose effective closure since the U.S. And Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 has debilitated global trade and sent oil prices soaring — have been sparse.

Here's what we know and don't know about the movement of shipping through the strait, and the wider effects of all this uncertainty.

Restoring marine traffic through the strait currently hinges on two fragile, short-term ceasefires.

A two-week ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. Has been in place since April 7, but talks since then on ending the war have foundered. 

With Tehran continuing to apply a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz — because the ceasefire had not included Israel's strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon — the U.S. Set up its own blockade of ships coming to and from Iran in the Gulf of Oman, east of the strait, beginning April 13. 

Following Thursday's announcement of a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Friday the strait would open for all commercial vessels as long as the cessation of hostilities remains in place. 

But the U.S. Has not backed down on its naval blockade, and it appears it will only be lifted when Iran agrees to wider terms — with just days until the ceasefire is set to end.

Iran has now warned it will take "necessary reciprocal measures" if the U.S. Blockade continues. While it offered no details, this presumably means Tehran will lock down the strait again.

Does re-opening the Strait of Hormuz mean the end of the war? | About That

Accordingly, with all the uncertainty, marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively at a standstill on Friday. 

Around 20 vessels began sailing toward the strait in the evening but soon halted, with some turning back, data from Marine Traffic showed. It was not immediately clear why the ships ⁠stopped. 

As of midnight Saturday in Tehran, Marine Traffic still showed oil tankers and container vessels clustered either side of the strait.

Twenty vessels would still be a far cry from what used to navigate the channel — UN Trade and Development estimated as many as 151 ships were transiting through daily in February. 

Strait of Hormuz open during U.S.-Iran ceasefire, Trump and Iran's foreign minister say

While a handful of ships have been hit by projectiles since the war began, another big source of uncertainty is how heavily the strait has been mined.

Trump said earlier Friday that Iran, with U.S. Help, "has removed or is in the process of removing all sea mines it had placed in the strait." Iran gave no corroboration, and it remains unclear how many mines have been laid and how many remain.

U.S. Officials quoted by the New York Times said Iran hasn't been able to locate all of the mines it laid and doesn't have the capability to remove them. 

Admiral Brad Cooper, the top U.S. Commander in the Middle East, confirmed the U.S. Military will be working to clear mines from the strait but offered no details on the scope of the task.

Trade through Strait of Hormuz down to a 'trickle,' says analyst

Clearing a strategic waterway such as the Strait of Hormuz would be a multi‑step process that could take two to three weeks, former naval officers and industry specialists have said.

The lack of any clear information on the quantity of mines and their location is clearly causing nerves among shipping companies. The head of the Norwegian Shipowners' Association, Knut Arild Hareide, said there are "a number of outstanding uncertainties" in the strait's reopening, "including questions related to the presence of sea mines."

While there are safety and security challenges to getting marine traffic flowing again, there is also a stark logistical one. 

More than a thousand ocean-going vessels have been trapped in the Persian Gulf for weeks, according to Daejin Lee, global head of research ​at Fertmax FZCO. 

The strait is just 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point and navigable channels for huge tankers and container ships are much narrower, so it won't be a simple case of letting everyone set sail at the same time when conditions are right.

It would likely take more than two weeks to clear the backlog even under normal conditions, Lee said.

Nils Haupt, senior director of communications of German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd, said a lot more detail and reassurance is needed before vessels can leave.

"Who is leaving first? Will it be like a chain? How is the procedure? This is all information we would need to know and because priority No. 1 is safety and security of the seafarers," Haupt said.

Haupt's concerns point to another major factor in the global consequences of the strait's closure: time. 

Markets may have reacted positively Friday to news of the strait's apparent reopening, but with Gulf exports now effectively stalled for seven weeks, supply — and prices — will take a long time to recover. 

Meanwhile, every added day of disruption disproportionately lengthens that recovery time as more oil waits for export.

Is this U.S. Blockade Trump’s riskiest move yet? | About That

Johnston estimated three weeks ago that around half a billion barrels of oil was locked behind Hormuz.

Heather Exner-Pirot of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa believes that figure is now closer to a billion — and it could take years to replace the inventory that's lost.

"Energy analysts would have consensus that the supply still isn't back on, and it'll take a long time to unwind," she said.

---

---