Is DMK-AIADMK bipolar politics intact, and can Vijay do an AAP in Tamil Nadu? A look through the Punjab-Delhi lens

TAmil Nadu's political relation has been bipolar for decades at present, with the Dravida Munetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All-India Anna Dravida Munetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) dominating the tell since 1977. Actor-turned-politician Vijay is trying to ding that this clip, playing on an old formula — of turning box-office success into a ballot blockbuster.But the record shows that even when other parties enter the fray in Tamil Nadu, the contest is always between two alliances, one led by DMK and the other by the AIADMK. These parties have always commanded a combined vote share of over 70%, and have consolidated smaller parties into their fold.Over the last almost 50 years, the AIADMK has held power for 31 years, while the DMK, the older of the two, has been in government for 18 years. But whoever has been in power in Tamil Nadu, the state has become entrenched in bipolar politics.Vijay and his TVK have chosen to try and become a third front. His attempt is brave, but not unique.There are other states in India that have been traditionally bipolar, with Punjab being a prime example of that, plus a recent disruption.Until the entry of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab, the state's politics oscillated between the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the Congress. The duopoly was somewhat disrupted only in 2017, when the AAP won a significant number of seats in the assembly polls.Five years later, the SAD (plus BJP)-versus-Congress duopoly was completely dismantled when the Arvind Kejriwal-led outfit stormed to power in 2022. It was the first time since 1966 that a non-Akali, non-Congress government had been formed in the state.Actor-turned-politician Bhagwant Mann became CM. Actors turning to politics in the South are even more prominent, including the DMK and AIADMK, as well as other parties.As for the AAP, before Punjab, it also broke the bipolarity in Delhi, unseating the Congress and then ruling for a decade before losing to the BJP last year. The bipolarity in Delhi has since returned, with AAP now one of the two poles along with the BJP.Coming back to Tamil Nadu, which is going to the polls on April 23, is the DMK vs AIADMK bipolarity still intact?The Vijay factorTamil Nadu’s bipolar politics is facing a potential disruption as Vijay positions his Tamilaga Vettri Kazagham (TVK) as a “lone warrior”.Also known as Thalapathy (commander), Vijay has sought to capture the approximately 20% of voters who are considered neutral or disillusioned with the current system.He has positioned himself against both Dravidian majors, the ruling DMK, as well as the opposition AIADMK. And he has insisted he has nothing to do with the BJP, which is in alliance with the AIADMK.Analysts suggest AIADMK faces the greatest risk, as Vijay's base overlaps with traditional AIADMK supporters and those seeking an alternative to the DMK, led by chief minister MK Stalin.According to the analysts from the Federal, Vijay might act as a "vote-cutter". Experts are divided on who he hurts more: some believe he erodes the DMK's base among youth and minorities, while others argue his solo gamble primarily splits the anti-incumbency vote, potentially handing the ruling DMK an advantage.During his campaign, Vijay has stated that "2026 will see a new party win like the 1967 and 1977 Tamil Nadu polls""2026 will be as big an election as 1967 and 1977. We are sure of that. In these two elections, new parties won by defeating established strong parties. The logic of how they won is simple: they met the people of Tamil Nadu. I want to repeat what Annadurai said: 'Go to the people, live with the people, learn from the people, plan with the people, and start with what they know.' If you do this right, victory is certain. We can win by bringing the people together," he said.On the other hand, Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin has often framed Vijay as a "newbie politician" who lacks an understanding of the decades of effort required to build the state's progress."All newbie politicians have emerged saying, 'We will destroy the DMK!'... But what are they going to change? Are they going to reverse Tamil Nadu's progress and drag it backwards?"Senior BJP leader K Annamalai admitted the rise of Vijay, but also had a theory. "He will get a double-digit vote share... He will cut votes from all political parties, including us. However, the NDA will form the government".