Carbon in India’s forests projected to grow as warming, rain increase: Study

CArbon stored in republic of india’s forests is projected to produce as warming and rainfall growth due to mood commute, a new study has found. The largest gains in carbon biomass are projected in the desert and semi-arid zones, followed by the trans-Himalaya, Indo-Gangetic Plain, and Deccan Peninsula. The increase will be modest for the Western Ghats, Northeast, and Himalayan forests.Across India’s forested regions, the study projects that average carbon stock will rise by about 35%, 62%, and 97% by 2100 under low, medium, and high emissions. It will remain broadly similar until around 2030, then diverge under different emission pathways by 2050. This is not necessarily good news, said the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus, Lund University, and Kerala Agricultural University-led study published in IOP’s Environmental Research: ClimateOne of the clearest findings of the study is that rainfall matters more than temperature at the national scale. Rainfall has the strongest overall influence on changes in forest carbon across India.Models predict an increasing trend of temperature and precipitation in India, along with intensified monsoon rainfall and higher soil moisture availability. These factors are expected to attribute the physiological changes in vegetation and enhance vegetation productivity under an increased CO2 level, according to previous studies cited in the study.Elevated CO2 in the atmosphere promotes photosynthesis in vegetation, leading to increased biomass and greater carbon uptake by the terrestrial ecosystem. But, as temperatures rise, outbreaks of pests and diseases are likely to become more frequent, placing forest ecosystems at even greater risk. Many plant species struggle to survive in their current habitats and begin migrating to more suitable locations, a phenomenon known as “shifting vegetation belts,” the study said.Climate change alters phenological patterns in plants, which can disrupt the pollination process and affect plant reproduction. Increased heatwaves and prolonged droughts can induce water stress, compromising plant growth, productivity, and survival, which should be taken into account, the study said.Using the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model and climate projections from CMIP6, the researchers examined how carbon changes from the recent past to the near, mid, and late 21st century under various emission scenarios. The researchers considered carbon stored in living forest vegetation, including in trunks, branches, leaves, and roots.The study said its findings highlight the critical need for region-specific climate adaptation strategies, as vegetation carbon biomass (VCB) trends are highly sensitive to variations in both temperature and precipitation. “The implications for forest management and carbon sequestration policies are substantial, particularly as different regions may experience divergent responses to future climatic shifts,” it said.“Future research should focus on understanding the long-term consequences of these changes, with an emphasis on identifying ecological thresholds and exploring potential mitigation strategies for the most vulnerable regions.”IITM climate scientist and co-author Roxy Mathew Koll said India’s forests are not responding to climate change uniformly. “Some regions may store more carbon in living biomass, but that does not mean climate change is helping forests. A warmer world is also bringing greater risks from drought, fire, and other disturbances. What this study shows most clearly is that rainfall matters deeply, and that future forest planning must be regional, climate-aware, and rooted in risk prevention.”IITM scientist Pramit Deb Burman said deserts and semi-arid regions show the largest increase in forest carbon biomass, consistent across the emission scenarios. “The growth in the Himalayan and Western Ghats remains lower. Overall, precipitation remains the major driver. However, its influence wanes with emissions, and warming takes over, which must be taken into consideration for nature-based mitigation management.”India has 16 primary forest type groups and 221 subtype groups, based on features such as structure, function, florist composition, climate, moisture, rainfall, temperature, biogeographic region, and elevation. It ranks 10th among the most forested nations globally. Excessive use of forest resources, rapid population expansion, climate change, and industrial development are reducing the extent and area of forestsOver the past two decades, global greening has significantly increased, with India emerging as the second-largest contributor among tropical regions since 2000.