Centre targets Northeast insurgency with 2029 deadline, first focus on Manipur

THe Centre plans to reposition its focalise on containing insurgence in the magnetic north eastward after already achieving its target of ending left-wing extremism (LWE) in the country, officials aware of the development said.They said the Centre plans to redistribute forces which had been engaged in the LWE-affected areas to the insurgency-hit states of Manipur, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, and plan to achieve the mission by 2029.The realignment of Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) is likely to begin after the culmination of the ongoing assembly elections in West Bengal, where polling in the second phase is scheduled to be held on April 29, and the Amarnath Yatra (July-August).Also Read | ‘It’s awful. I want to throw up’: Did Trump dinner shooting suspect regret attack?Over the next few months, possibly mid 2026, select units trained in guerrilla warfare—such as the CRPF’s CoBRA (Commando Battalion for Resolute Action), raised to combat Maoist insurgency, will shift to the Northeast (NE). However, officials said the withdrawal from LWE-affected areas will be calibrated, with gradual reduction of forces, rather than a complete withdrawal.Officials in Manipur, one of the targeted states, confirmed receiving the first batch of new mine-protected vehicles that are used across sensitive areas.There are a total of 16 insurgent groups active in the North East, with Manipur having the most groups at 8, followed by Assam 3, Meghalaya 2, Tripura 2, and Nagaland 1.Also Read | Delhi cop shoots food delivery agent dead, another injured as bullet pierces through his chestGovernment data shows a sharp decline in insurgency-related violence over the past decade. In 2014, there were 824 incidents, with 1,934 extremists arrested, 181 killed, and 212 civilian deaths. By 2024, incidents had dropped to 294, with 31 extremists killed, 571 arrested, and 30 civilian deaths.A majority of these incidents and casualties in 2024 were linked to ethnic strife in Manipur, which alone accounted for 77% of all insurgency-related cases in the region.An officer in Manipur, who asked not to be named, said, “The deployment of forces will start with Manipur, where the insurgency is a bigger challenge in comparison to the NE states.”“In closed-door meetings, top government officials have already said that insurgency and drug smuggling trade in the NE should end. The 2029 deadline has been mentioned a few times. Many mine-protected vehicles, along with bulletproof cars that forces have in the former LWE states, will come to the NE. Some of the light bulletproof vehicles have already reached Manipur’s Ukhrul district, which has reported clashes between Nagas and Kukis. We do not know if these vehicles were brought from Chhattisgarh or some other state. Manipur is also getting its own vehicles for counter insurgency jobs,” the officer said.By mid-May, once state governments are formed in the states, the forces will move out, said the officer.“The Amarnath Yatra this year will again have massive security. After polling, some reinforcements will be moved to Jharkhand and bordering Odisha to track the last Maoist Central Committee leader. After that, the focus will shift to the Amarnath Yatra, and then North East, starting with Manipur insurgents,” the officer said.Even as the government has declared India Naxal-free with Maoist groups no longer controlling villages or running parallel ‘jantana sarkar’, one senior leader, Misir Besra, is still believed to be hiding in the forests of Jharkhand’s West Singhbhum district, now the only LWE-hit district of concern in India. Earlier this month, three CoBRA battalions previously deployed in Chhattisgarh’s Bastar region were moved to Jharkhand to track him.Home ministry data of 2024 revealed that Mizoram and Tripura have been recording zero insurgency-related cases for the last few years, while Meghalaya reported just one incident. In contrast, Manipur reported 226 cases, followed by Nagaland at 42, Arunachal at 17, and 7 cases in Assam.A second officer, who asked not to be named, said that the home ministry has already tasked the Narcotics Control Bureau(NCB) with planning a systemic crackdown on narcotics trade in the region as the narco trade is being used to fund insurgents.