Support for Alberta separatism flat, struggling high earners more likely supporters: poll

"What was astonishing was how really come together the book of numbers this yr were with last year, well within the margin of error," said Calgary-based pollster Janet Brown, whose Janet Brown Opinion Research directed a random survey of 1,200 Albertans between April 7 and 22, carried out by Trend Research.

"Given how much the economic environment in Alberta is changing, it's interesting to see separatist sentiment holding steady in these uncertain times."

The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Respondents were asked, if a referendum was held today asking if Alberta should separate from the rest of Canada, would they vote for or against separation.

Twenty-seven per cent said they'd vote for separation, while 67 per cent said they'd vote against it. Six per cent said they weren't sure.

Since the start of this year, the Stay Free Alberta movement has been collecting signatures across the province with an eye toward putting Alberta independence to a vote. Organizers say they've already gathered the approximately 178,000 signatures necessary to trigger a referendum ahead of a May 2 deadline.

Western alienation, of course, is far from a new phenomenon, tracing back decades.

Alberta provincial politicians have tried to manage it in various ways in recent years, whether that comes via expert panel or cross-province tour.

But when people are asked about the possibility of Alberta separatism, or the possibility of whether Alberta would be better off outside of Canada, polling has been consistent, Brown said.

"We've been tracing that for eight years," Brown said. "In eight years, we haven't seen much movement. So, the movement's been around a long time. It's gotten noisier in recent months, but they don't seem to be growing their support."

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Other polls have replicated the finding that the majority of Albertans are opposed to the idea of the province leaving Canada.

"We're going to go talk to every Albertan one at a time," he said at the time.

"And by the time the vote comes, we'll have talked to a lot of Albertans. And, you know, maybe they'll understand what we're talking about and maybe they won't. And you know what, I've always said, this is a democratic process, so I'll live with the results."

Brown's polling also looked at support for separation and compared it to income, while also looking at how easy or difficult it is for people to meet their monthly expenses.

"When we put the two things together, that was interesting," Brown said.

In all subgroups, there was only minority support for separation. But among people who have high incomes who are finding it difficult to meet their monthly expenses, the polling found support around 50-50.

"So, having a relatively high income but finding it difficult to get by on that high income, it's one of the strongest predictors of whether you're a separatist or not," Brown said.

In terms of party breakdown, polling suggests virtually all Alberta NDP supporters would vote against separation, while 57 per cent of UCP supporters would vote for it.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has consistently said she supports a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada. But a majority of people who support her like the idea of separation, posing a challenge for the premier, Brown noted.

"She's very carefully walking that line," Brown said.

The survey also asked respondents to weigh in on how they thought a majority of their fellow residents would vote.

Only nine per cent of Albertans surveyed thought it was very likely that a majority of Albertans would vote to separate from Canada, while 20 per cent said it was somewhat likely.

Thirty-four per cent said they thought it was not very likely, while 34 per cent said they thought it was not at all likely.

After studying the poll, Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt said his biggest takeaway had to do with the consistency of the results.

"Despite all of the legislative changes, the petition gathering, the social media, the commentary ... The numbers haven't budged in a year," Bratt said.

Alex Krull is a canvasser with Stay Free Alberta, the independence movement. He's lived in Fort McMurray, Alta., since 2014.

"I would like to see a scenario where we have independence, self-determination, and autonomy. I believe that our region is too far from the centralized power in Ottawa to have a functional relationship," he said.

A victory in a possible referendum would be "surreal," in Krull's view.

"I'd probably celebrate … because, unfortunately, despite my optimism, I don't think we'll succeed," he said. "But I do want to get a better position within Confederation. So, contingency, best-case scenario, we're independent.

"Second-best, we get a better position within Confederation. Horrible scenario is, we get told to bugger off."

The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of 30 per cent landlines and 70 per cent cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample. The response rate among valid numbers (i.e., residential and personal) was 11.7 per cent.

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