Liberals promising improved bottom line in today's spring economic update

The federal soldier Liberals testament tabularise their springtime economical update today, with Prime Minister Mark Carney hinting at a rosier bottom line and smaller-than-forecasted deficits. 

"There will be good news [Tuesday] with the spring update on the fiscal situation, the government's performance against our deficit targets, the government's performance on getting spending under control," Carney said Monday, while unveiling his plan to create Canada's first national sovereign wealth fund.

Canadians will get more details of that performance when Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne tables the fiscal update after 4 p.m. ET.

His Nov. 4 budget projected a deficit of $78.3 billion for the 2025-26 fiscal year, a more than $65-billion deficit for the current fiscal calendar, then gradually falling to $57 billion in 2029-30.  

A Department of Finance release late last week showed the government ran a deficit of $25.5 billion between April 2025 and February 2026 — well below the forecast with one month remaining.

Asked Monday why the deficit is expected to be less than projected, Carney credited his team with being "good fiscal managers" who are "determined to get spending down."

Economists have pointed to higher federal revenues and surging oil prices as explanation.

Whatever the headline deficit number today, it's unlikely to appease the leader of the Opposition.

"We should have no deficit," said Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in a public letter he wrote to Carney over the weekend. "And if I were Prime Minister right now, we would be on track to achieving that."

How are affordability issues playing into Ottawa's spring economic update Tuesday?

During a news conference Sunday, Poilievre said the lower deficit figure for April to February omits March numbers, a month when the government typically spends more. 

"That's when Liberals like to push all the money out the door to their friends, and that's when the deficit goes soaring," he said. "We all thought that it was impossible … for anyone to spend more recklessly than … Justin Trudeau. And then along came Mark Carney and said, 'Hold my champagne.'"

The update is being presented on the first anniversary of Carney's election.  

One of his key promises since forming government has been to slim day-to-day government expenses while increasing spending on defence, major infrastructure projects and housing as part of his government's push to reduce reliance on the United States.

The update is expected to focus on affordability amid economic anxiety stemming from the Iran war and the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S.  

Five months after the budget was tabled, the global energy market has been thrown off-kilter by the U.S. And Israel-led war on Iran and the ensuing stalemate in ceasefire talks. That has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping artery.

A central piece of Tuesday's fiscal update will be the Canada Strong Fund that Carney announced Monday. 

The government is pitching the investment vehicle, which will begin with an initial endowment of $25 billion, as a way for Canadians to benefit from major projects. 

Carney said individual Canadians can invest directly into the fund and earn dividends, suggesting it would be similar to purchasing a government bond.  

“It is not something for … rich people," Carney said. “This will be a government of Canada fund, but more importantly, it will be a people’s fund. It will be your fund."

With a central part of Carney's overall agenda focused on building major projects, Carney said Tuesday's update will include a push to get more young people into the skilled trades.

Carney hints at skilled trades initiative in spring economic update

Carney suggested the update will also include announcements around community centres and sports programming. 

After entering office, Carney shifted the tabling of the budget from spring to fall.

Reporter

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