An extended 'honeymoon' not seen since Ralph Klein: poll shows strong support for Alberta's UCP

And with back up for the NDP slithering, the canvass suggests the UCP would potential win an even out stronger majority than it boasts now, if an election were to be held today. 

“We haven’t seen a government have a honeymoon this long since really the Ralph Klein days,” pollster Janet Brown said. 

But perhaps more remarkably, the most popular political leader in the province appears to be a Liberal.

Prime Minister Mark Carney's approval rating was higher among respondents than Smith's and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's — a scenario that may have once seemed unthinkable in right-leaning Alberta. 

The Calgary-based polling company directed a random survey of 1,200 Albertans between April 7 and 22, carried out by Trend Research. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The poll suggests 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the UCP in an election held today, compared to 36 per cent for the NDP. Eight per cent would vote for other parties; the poll describes seven per cent as "orphans," people who say they will vote but are shopping around to determine who they'll vote for. 

That's lower than the UCP's vote share in 2023. But the NDP have slipped even further, widening the gap between the parties from nine points to 13.

And the UCP would increase their seat count, according to the poll, winning nine more seats than in 2023.

The NDP would lose nine. (The seat projections use the current electoral map, before the province changes any riding boundaries.) 

Smith’s personal approval rating is down slightly from Brown’s polling last year, but 52 per cent of respondents still said they are very or somewhat impressed with the premier. 

Brown says Smith is similar to Klein in that she has a knack for making voters feel heard, even if some policies can spark controversy.

She says Smith and her party can partially claim credit for their standing — but it also reflects weakness on the part of the Opposition. 

“I think it’s a combination of the UCP staying on the right side of voters, and maybe the NDP failing to register,” she said.

“If I were the UCP, I wouldn’t get too high on my horse. I would recognize the fact that they’re probably getting help from the NDP.”  

NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi's approval has dropped four points from Brown's 2025 poll, with 47 per cent of respondents now impressed with him. Brown says Nenshi has not resonated with voters after his leadership win in the way some might have thought.

Part of that could reflect challenges for an Opposition party in today’s media landscape, said Lisa Young, a political science professor at the University of Calgary.

Without the elevated status of government, and as more media platforms compete for eyeballs, Young says the NDP are struggling to capture attention.

The poll also suggests a growing frustration with the cost of living. A slight majority of respondents said the economy is getting worse, up 10 points from when the question was asked last year.

“But despite all the growing economic uncertainty, ironically, it doesn’t seem to be affecting support for the government,” Brown said. 

That could always change. If the war in the Middle East worsens inflation significantly in the year ahead, Young says voters could look for somewhere else to put the blame. 

Young says the results of the fall referendum — and how Smith handles it — could also shift the dynamics before next year's provincial election. 

“I do think that this is sort of the calm before the storm in some ways politically, and we should look at the numbers through that lens,” she said. 

It would seem many in the province are welcoming Carney with open arms. Sixty-five per cent of respondents said they were impressed with the prime minister. 

“It is really striking to look at the levels of support for Mark Carney,” said Young. “I cannot think of the last time that a federal Liberal Party leader had favourable numbers like this.” 

Brown notes approval doesn't necessarily equal voting intention, meaning even if Carney is well-liked, the Liberals shouldn't count on Alberta suddenly turning red.

But it could be a cause of concern for the Conservatives, with Poilievre's favourability dropping seven points from last year's poll, from 61 to to 54 per cent.

“We asked people how impressed they are — I think what impresses Albertans is winning elections,” said Brown. “And I think Poilievre is suffering because he didn’t bring home that election victory that he promised."

Despite losing the last federal election, Poilievre won his party's leadership review in Calgary in January with 87.4 per cent of the vote.

Opinions of Carney could shift if he’s not able to deliver for the province, Young said — namely if the memorandum of understanding fails to result in a new pipeline. 

NDP Leader Avi Lewis had the highest unfavourability rating, with 49 per cent of respondents unimpressed. Twenty-seven per cent were unsure — perhaps not a surprise given he was elected leader only shortly before the poll was conducted. 

But it would seem a solid contingent has made up their mind on Lewis, which could be a problem for Nenshi if he’s tied too closely to his federal counterpart. 

“We see the UCP really attacking the NDP on this, and I think it could be a successful argument for them,” Brown said. "Avi Lewis does not represent the kind of NDP politics that Albertans are comfortable with."

The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of 30 per cent landlines and 70 per cent cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample. The response rate among valid numbers (i.e., residential and personal) was 11.7 per cent.

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