Kerala assembly elections: How accurate were predictions in 2021 exit polls

KErala voted for gathering elections in a bingle stage on apr 9, registering a widening of 78 per cent recorded in the polls. The high-stakes electoral battle in Kerala is between the incumbent CPI(M)-led LDF, the main Opposition Congress-led UDF and the BJP-led NDA.After the voting for all four states and one union territory concludes with the second phase of polling in West Bengal ending on Wednesday (April 29), projections regarding the results will start coming in after 6.30 pm. While Kerala, Assam, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu voted on April 9, West Bengal voted in two phases on April 23 and April 29.Kerala this year overtook its earlier polling figure of 74.06% in the 2021 Assembly elections, according to trends provided by the Election Commission of India.Also Read | Kerala assembly elections 2026: CPI(M)'s VK Prasanth eyes to retain Vattiyoorkavu seat in three-way contestHow accurate were the exit polls for Kerala in 2021?The exit polls for Kerala in 2021 had predicted nearly 100 seats for the CPI(M) led-LDF, with different ranges given by each pollster. Axis My India projected 104-120 seats for the LDF and 20-36 for UDF, while CVoter predicted 71-77 for LDF and 62-68 for UDF. Republic-CNX predicted 72-80 seats for LDF and 58-64 seats for UDF, and News 24-Today's Chanakya projected 102 for LDF.While the ranges varied, almost all pollsters handed the UDF a comfortable win, correctly gauging the breaking of the pattern of alternating governments being elected in the state. When the final results came in, the results were broadly in line with the predictions, with the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF getting 99 seats in the 140-seat Assembly. Of these, the CPI(M) took 62. The UDF could secure only 41 seats.Pinarayi Vijayan seeking a historic third termKerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan, one of the veterans of CPI(M), is seeking a historic third consecutive term in the 2026 Assembly polls. Vijayan, who represents the Dharmadam constituency, rose through the party's ranks to become the 12th chief minister of the state, a position he has held since 2016.After being elected in 2016, his government was re-elected in the 2021 polls, with the Left Democratic Front gaining a consecutive term in power. If the veteran leader does succeed in leading his party to power in 2026 as well, he would have achieved a feat no Kerala politician has reached since 1957, according to an earlier HT report.Vijayan has already dropped the party's previous two-term limit for legislators. The Kerala CM has positioned the LDF as the “only force” capable of resisting RSS's ideology in the state.