First exit poll out: Political earthquake in Bengal, DMK firm in Tamil Nadu

THe number one get out canvass projections of the 2026 gathering election flavor are out, and two prominent agencies — Matrize and People's Pulse — have now released projections across all five poll-bound states and the Union Territory of Puducherry. While the two agencies broadly agree on Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry, they are dramatically at odds on West Bengal — the single biggest battleground of this election season. If Matrize's numbers — the first exit poll projections of the 2026 assembly elections — hold on result day, the country is headed for a dramatic May 4. The agency's projections point to a historic change of guard in West Bengal and Kerala, a comfortable DMK retention in Tamil Nadu, and a third successive term for the BJP in Assam. Puducherry projections are yet to be released.The biggest story of the evening, thus, clearly is West Bengal.Follow: Live Exit Poll Results 2026Bengal exit pollsMatrize projects the BJP winning 146–161 seats in the 294-member assembly — the majority mark is 148 — with a vote share of 42.5 per cent.The Trinamool Congress is projected to win 125–140 seats at 40.8 per cent vote share.If the numbers bear out, it would mark the end of Mamata Banerjee's 15-year grip on Bengal, and arguably the most significant state-level electoral upset in recent Indian political history.The campaign in Bengal was shaped by battles over electoral rolls and citizenship, border security, women's safety, employment, and anti-incumbency after a decade and a half of Trinamool rule. The state polled in two phases on April 23 and April 29, recording a massive voter turnout that crossed the 2021 record of 80.4 per cent.Tamil Nadu may stay with DMKIn Tamil Nadu, Matrize projects the DMK-led alliance winning 122–132 of 234 seats, with 40.3 per cent of the vote — comfortably above the majority mark of 118 — while the AIADMK-led front is seen taking 87–100 seats at 37.1 per cent.Actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam is projected to open its tally with 10–12 seats and 17.5 per cent vote share — a notable debut for a party contesting its first election.The high-stakes battle in Tamil Nadu played out between CM MK Stalin's DMK and Edappadi K Palaniswami's AIADMK-BJP (NDA) alliance, with the TVK adding a new variable to the contest. The state recorded its highest-ever assembly election turnout of 84.69 per cent.Cong set to win KeralaKerala springs a major surprise. Matrize projects the Congress-led United Democratic Front winning 70–75 seats at 41.7 per cent vote share, against the ruling Left Democratic Front's 60–65 seats at 39.5 per cent — ending Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's bid for an unprecedented third consecutive term.The BJP-led NDA is projected at just 3–5 seats. Kerala recorded a voter turnout of 78.23 per cent, the highest since 1987, in what was a closely contested three-way fight.Assam and PuducherryIn Assam, the BJP-led NDA appears firmly in control. Matrize projects it winning 85–95 of 126 seats with a dominant 45.5 per cent vote share, while the Congress-led opposition is projected at 25–32 seats and 39.8 per cent. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is seeking a third straight term for the NDA in the state, with Congress fielding Gaurav Gogoi as its lead face.Assam recorded a record turnout of approximately 85 per cent when it went to the polls on April 9.Puducherry, which also polled on April 9 and recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 90.47 per cent since 1964, is yet to be covered in Matrize's projections. The 30-seat UT contest is between the ruling NDA led by CM N Rangaswamy's AINRC and the Congress-DMK INDIA bloc.All results will be officially declared on May 4.