Pollsters predict tight contest in Kerala, Congress-led UDF at an advantage

WIth leave canvass predictions in Kerala coming in, pollsters boulder clay at present feature predicted a tight contest, while handing an advantage to the Congress-led UDF.People's Pulse has predicted 75-85 seats for UDF, and between 55-65 seats for the LDF. The pollster gave NDA between 0-3 seats. Matrize too has projected a UDF surge, giving the between 70-75 seats. Matrize has predicted 60-65 seats for the ruling LDF, and 3-5 seats for NDA.Meanwhile, Axis My India has projected a comfortable victory for the Congress-led UDF with 78-90 seats. The pollster has predicted 49-62 seats for LDF, and between 0-3 seats for NDA.Preferred CM, vote share projectionsAxis My India also released the projections for the preferred chief minister, and the vote share predictions for the alliances. According to the pollster, the UDF is predicted to hold the highest vote share at 44 per cent, followed by LDF at 39 per cent and NDA at 14 per cent.For preferred chief ministers in the state, current CM Pinarayi Vijayan, of the LDF, received the highest votes at 33 per cent. The next in line was Congress's VD Satheesan at 21 per cent, followed by ‘any candidate from UDF’ at 11 per cent.Kerala voted in a single phase on April 9 for the 140-seat Assembly elections, with the results expected to be announced on May 4. The incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by Communist Party of India (M), has been the ruling political alliance of Kerala since 2016. The other major alliance in the Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front.While the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government had last year managed to break the four-decade pattern of alternating governments in the state, it remains to see if he can achieve a rare historic feat for a third term. Vijayan is contesting from the Dharmadam Assembly constituency in Kannur.LDF has, in the past, won a total of 6 elections out of 10 since the formation of the alliance in 1980.What were the results in 2021?LDF made history in 2021 after being elected for a second consecutive term. The alliance secured 99 seats, of which CPI(M) won 62, while the UDF got only 41 seats.The LDF's vote share was 45.43%, while the UDF's was 39.47%. The BJP-led NDA had a vote share of 12.4%, but could not win any seats. In 2021, Pinarayi Vijayan became the first chief minister in Kerala to be re-elected, and it was the first time since 1977 that a ruling alliance won consecutively in the state.