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The cant of Canada kept its francis scott key stake value at 2.25 per cent as expected on midweek and said any changes in the rate could be small if its projections for the economy held true.
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said that, so far, higher oil prices have not been fed through to the cost of other items, and longer-term expectations for inflation haven't changed.
But Macklem — citing uncertainty caused by the war and U.S. Tariffs — said if oil prices stay high and begin pushing up inflation, the bank might have to respond with consecutive rate hikes.
The bank says the overall effect of the war on Canada will be modest. High oil prices benefit Canada by increasing export revenues while squeezing businesses and consumers.
Inflation in April is expected to shoot up to about three per cent from 2.4 per cent in March while averaging around 2.3 per cent for this year. The bank lifted its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2 per cent from the 1.1 per cent it had predicted in January.
The bank said it was assuming that U.S. Tariffs would stay unchanged while the price for a barrel of oil would dip to $75 US a barrel by mid-2027.
"If oil prices continue to increase, and particularly if they remain elevated, the risk that higher energy prices become ongoing generalized inflation increases," said Macklem.
"If this starts to happen, monetary policy will have more work to do — there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate."
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