Key pollster skips, most predict BJP win, Mamata says guard EVMs: The Bengal exit poll knot

THe westward Bengal assemblage election results ar simply years away, but the state's exit polls have left many knotty points. A key pollster has skipped projections entirely for Bengal while releasing exit poll figures for other states, while the state's sitting chief minister has called on her workers to guard EVM strongrooms.Most exit polls in West Bengal have predicted that the BJP will win the assembly election when the results are announced on May 4. Chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) has rejected the poll projections, even though some predict the party will retain power and return for a fourth term.Here is what has happened in Bengal since the polls closed after the second phase of voting on April 29.The West Bengal exit poll conundrumKey pollster skipsAxis My India, one of India's major pollsters, skipped releasing exit poll projections for West Bengal, saying voters were keeping mum about their choice.The reason behind not releasing the exit polls for Bengal stemmed from the fact that a majority of the voters, 70 per cent to be precise, refuse to participate in the exit poll survey, a statement released on behalf of Axis My India founder Pradeep Gupta said.The pollster said the high degree of hesitancy and refusal rate "exceeded historical norms and introduces a high degree of non-response bias".Most exit polls predict a BJP win, 2 outliersMatrize and P-Marq suggested the BJP winning Bengal, ending Mamata's 15-year reign. The Poll Diary survey suggested the BJP winning 142-171 seats, while the TMC trailing with 99-127 seats.The JVC exit poll predicted a tight contest between the two camps, with the TMC projected to get 131-152 seats, while the BJP getting 138-159 seats. Today’s Chanakya also projected the BJP winning almost 200 seats.People's Pulse and Janmat polls, however, projected a TMC tide in Bengal, giving Mamata a fourth term. While People's Pulse gave TMC 177 to 187 seats and the BJP 95 to 110 seats, Janmat predicted an even cleaner sweep for the incumbent, projecting 195 to 205 seats for TMC and 80 to 90 seats for the BJP.2021 exit polls got it wrongIn 2021, predictions were sharply divided, with agencies offering contrasting outcomes. CVoter projected the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) to retain power comfortably with 158 seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was estimated at 115. On the other hand, the Republic-CNX poll flipped the script, giving the BJP an edge with 143 seats and placing the TMC at 133.Axis My India suggested an even tighter race, projecting the TMC between 130 and 156 seats and the BJP between 134 and 160 – effectively indicating that either party could cross the majority mark of 148 in the 294-member Assembly.When the results were declared, the outcome differed significantly from most projections. The TMC secured a sweeping victory, winning 215 seats, while the BJP won only 77 seats.The election, held over eight phases, had seen the BJP mount a strong challenge against Banerjee, while the CPI(M)-Congress-ISF alliance added a third angle in several constituencies but failed to make a substantial impact.High EVM drama after Mamata’s callHigh drama erupted in Kolkata after the TMC made a major tampering claim about the opening of ballot boxes in the EVM strongroom on Wednesday, after Mamata Banerjee called on party workers to guard EVM strongrooms.The row began with TMC candidate from Beleghata assembly constituency, Kunal Ghosh, and party leader Shashi Panja, who sat on a dharna (sit-in) in Kolkata, alleging that the Election Commission and the BJP opened ballot boxes in strong rooms in the absence of relevant stakeholders.The TMC later said in a statement that party supremo Mamata Banerjee would personally visit the location to “take stock of the situation”.This comes after Banerjee called on party workers to stay up all night to guard the EVM strongrooms.“BJP has played the final game. Share markets would have toppled if the real figures were released. People need to stay together, keep a close watch on counting... Stay up all night,” she said, adding that she will guard the EVM strongrooms herself if need be.“They plan to swap EVMs .... Till the time I hold a press conference and declare, do not leave counting tables ... They might change data in computers, giving our numbers to BJP and BJP's to us, I myself will go to the counting hall, I can do that as a candidate. You have gone through so much. Please bear slightly more to save Bengal,” she said.