67% of Albertans want party leaders to say how they will vote on independence, CBC News poll suggests

Natalie Thoma scoffs at the thought of Alberta detachment.

“ wherefore should Alberta be its possess main(a) country?” she wonders, shrugging her shoulders. 

There are more important things to worry about, says the Calgary equipment operator, including the rising cost of living. 

“Paycheques are low and the cost of living keeps going up and up,” said Thoma outside the Marlborough Mall in Calgary's northeast. 

She thinks Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is playing both sides of the Alberta independence debate when she says she supports a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.  

Thoma wants the premier and other provincial political leaders to be “pro-Canada all the way!”

“Canada's one of the greatest countries in the world,” she added.  

Last week, Smith said she thinks Alberta “should remain in Canada. That’s the position of our government. We believe we should assert sovereignty within a united Canada. That is our policy.”

But Smith’s remark drew a rebuke and warning from a prominent Alberta separatist.

Jeffrey Rath, a lawyer for the independence movement, told PostMedia that if Smith won’t champion Alberta independence, she should definitely not cheerlead for the pro-Canada side. 

“If she’s not going to support us, she should stay out of it,” said Rath.

The poll results, and Rath’s comments, underline the potential political drama that lies ahead for Smith and her governing United Conservative Party. 

“Danielle Smith has been walking a very fine line,” said Janet Brown, who conducted the survey. “I think a lot of people are expecting her to fall off that line, but she's maintaining that delicate balance right now.”

Despite the potential political danger, Brown thinks Smith is locked into having a vote on separation because many supporters of the idea propelled her to the UCP leadership in 2022. 

“I think a lot of separatists feel that they were promised a referendum, and they're looking for her to fulfill that,” said Brown.

In his admonishment of Smith, Rath stressed that a big part of the governing United Conservative Party members support pulling Alberta out of Canada. 

The poll also suggests that support for independence amongst all Albertans has remained flat over the past year, with 27 per cent of respondents saying they are pro-independence and 67 per cent opposed to breaking up the country. 

And those numbers align with how Albertans feel about provincial leaders declaring their position on independence. Amongst those who would vote against independence, 81 per cent think Alberta politicians should say how they would vote in an independence referendum. 

But for Albertans inclined to vote yes to separation, 56 per cent of them are OK with politicians remaining tight-lipped about their vote.

“What the separatists don't want,” said Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt, “is Danielle Smith to campaign against separatism.… They would rather have her keep her mouth shut.”

Albertans who identify as left wing (88 per cent), NDP supporters (87 per cent) and people not impressed with Smith (86 per cent), not surprisingly, are the most likely to want provincial party leaders to declare their position on independence.  

Additionally, 86 per cent of Albertans who identify as more attached to Canada and who are impressed with Prime Minister Mark Carney (83 per cent) also want to hear how Alberta politicians feel about the independence question.

Highly educated Albertans (79 per cent), women (71 per cent) and people who live in Edmonton (72 per cent) similarly want political leaders to be forthcoming about how they’d vote in an independence referendum.

For Albert Forsey, a heavy-duty mechanic and welder in Fort McMurray who supports Alberta independence, a vote on separation is a chance for him and others to have their democratic say about the Prairie province's future in Confederation. 

But Calgary’s Deng Duang wants Smith to be unequivocally pro-Canada. 

“She's a leader. She should be clear what she's saying for the people,” said Duang. “If you want to do something, be clear. Let people hear you,” said Duang outside the northeast Marlborough LRT Station on Wednesday morning. 

“This is not just like daylight saving time. This is an existential question about Alberta's place in Confederation. I would expect the premier of the province to have an opinion one way or the other,” added Bratt. 

The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of 30 per cent landlines and 70 per cent cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample. The response rate among valid numbers (i.e., residential and personal) was 11.7 per cent.

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