What May 4 verdict means for key leaders — Modi, Shah, Mamata, Rahul, Stalin, Himanta

THe high-stakes gathering elections held endure month and the results they tire on mon, May 4, managed to remold India's regional politics as we know it. While the saffron tide in West Bengal took over as the Bharatiya Janata Party bagged a historic landslide victory, Tamil Nadu put its might behind actor-turned-politician debutant Vijay, and the Congress-led United Democratic Front managed to upend Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front in Kerala. The election saw three chief ministers, all Opposition and regional leaders, lose not just their states but also their place in respective assemblies, with Assam's Himanta Sarma and Puducherry's N. Rangasamy being exceptions.Here's what May 4's historic verdict means for key leaders-PM ModiIf there was one dent in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s enviable array of political achievements, it was the Bharatiya Janata Party’s repeated failure to breach the ideologically and electorally pivotal citadel of West Bengal. Even as the countdown to the polls began this spring, the state unit looked in disarray and chief minister Mamata Banerjee appeared to have the edge. His personal investment in the campaign – 20+rallies, roadshow after roadshow both in stronghold Siliguri and Trinamool Congress bastion Kolkata, and camera moments like eating Jhalmuri in Jhargram – paid rich dividends.Any doubts about the longevity of his political brand after the somewhat underwhelming performance of the BJP in the 2024 polls must now be consigned to the dustbin; first Mumbai, then Patna, and now Kolkata have indicated that 2024 was more likely than not, a blip. The BJP has surpassed its performance in every major state where assembly polls have been held since. Under Modi, the BJP retooled its electoral machinery after its sub-par showing and showed that it can do both coalition politics in a complex state in Bihar, and win on its own in an equally complex but more volatile state of Bengal. The victories on Monday (the BJP also won Assam, and the NDA, Puducherry) steady his hand, making sure that running a coalition government will not chip away at his unique governance style. It makes him the first sitting prime minister to have won West Bengal since Jawaharlal Nehru. It reinforces his stature as the tallest political leader in the country and someone who has taken on every tall regional and Congress leader in the country – and won.He has expanded not just the caste catchment of his party – pushing it beyond its original comfort zone of upper-castes to Dalits and backward castes – and also grown it regionally. The BJP not only has its first chief minister in Bihar, but also now in West Bengal, something unimaginable before Modi built an enduring national image not hemmed in by regional or gender concerns.The party now has more lawmakers across the country than it ever did, a demonstration of its hegemonic status. The victory in India’s third-largest state by political heft means that the National Democratic Alliance is now set to hold a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha.The historic victory in Bengal means that Modi has kept his word of sailing down the Ganga from Patna and conquering a state long inimical to the political right. He now sails up the same river to Uttar Pradesh where elections will be held next spring.Amit ShahOn New Year’s Eve even as waves of people in Kolkata were inundating Park Street, Amit Shah was holding a quiet meeting at a hotel in Salt Lake. Present were top BJP functionaries and Suvendu Adhikari. But also invited was his bete noir, former state unit chief Dilip Ghosh – a man who had not only rebelled against the party but also met CM Mamata Banerjee. With reins of the 2026 campaign in his hands, Shah quickly set the faction-riven state unit in order. He sensed that anti-incumbency was simmering and spent a month in Kolkata micromanaging the campaign. Learning from missteps of 2021, he didn’t take in turncoats, promoted local workers to candidates, ran a quieter campaign focussed on everyday durniti (corruption), and contrasted the TMC rule to its own vision of Sonar Bangla (golden Bengal). For each key demographic, Shah held a different lure – for rural women, the promise of doubling dole; for the rural man, the promise of jobs and ending migration; for the urban middle-class, the promise of restoring Bengal’s pride and expelling so-called Bangladeshis. It pushed back against the TMC’s charge of being alien to Bengal’s culture, language and food. It took away the TMC’s biggest strength – its dense grassroots network of workers who control polling booths and constituencies – using 300,000 paramilitary forces. This especially helped in south Bengal where the BJP didn’t have a committed cadre. And the prolonged special intensive revision added a communal charge to the election – allowing the BJP to keep the question of undocumented immigrants at the core of the campaign, even if the exclusions do not seem to have influenced the outcome. All this built what is the biggest milestone for the BJP since winning Uttar Pradesh in 2017. Shah must be smiling.Rahul GandhiFor a man bruised by electoral setbacks far too often, Rahul Gandhi must be a relatively relieved man. The Congress has won its most decisive victory in Kerala in a generation. The party now has four chief ministers on its own – three of whom are in southern India. Moreover, the losses suffered by MK Stalin and Mamata Banerjee might give the Congress more elbow room within the INDIA bloc.Yet, danger bells are ringing. From once ruling Assam, the Congress has now lost the state thrice on the trot. In Tamil Nadu, one of his oldest allies, the DMK, was defeated by an upstart who captured the imagination of young people. The party’s own tally shrunk and any consolation tie-up with Vijay – if at all – will not help expand its base. And in Bengal, the Congress might draw some heart from opening its account in the assembly but its relevance is limited.Gandhi ,the Congress leader, had a mixed day. But Gandhi, the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, had a horrendous day. The Opposition lost in the one round of polls where it was expected to do well. The INDIA bloc will be cornered in the Rajya Sabha. The loss in Tamil Nadu will deprive Gandhi of his talking point of federalism and diversity. After all, the BJP today rules a far more linguistically and regionally diverse region than the Congress.Mamata BanerjeeMamata Banerjee is no stranger to setbacks. In August 1990, the then Youth Congress leader received two blows to her head during a protest against the then Left Front regime. The next year, she was attacked by ruling party goons again. And then in 2001, she was so sure of victory that she even showed the famous ‘V’ sign. The seven-term MP, former Union minister and three-time CM is as battle hardened as they come. Yet, Banerjee is facing the toughest test of her career.The formidable coalition she built with welfare and her personal charisma has disintegrated. Muslims fragmented at the precise time communal resentment, aspiration and demographic anxieties united the Hindu voter behind the BJP.Even the hinterland – long considered captive to both the softball of welfare and the hardball of TMC muscleman – drifted away. Banerjee can claim this election was hardly fair. The SIR disenfranchised 2.71 million. The EC poured in 2,500 companies of paramilitary personnel. Some of her candidates were raided by federal agencies, as was her political consultancy firm. And she still got 41% votes. But she will also have to admit that anti-incumbency was the overarching theme of this election. The loss has diminished her national stature. At 71, India’s most successful regional politician has been returned to the streets. Can she make it back to the corridors of power? Time is not on her side.MK StalinAmong the many scions who have ascended the ladder of power, MK Stalin’s climb must count among the longest. The son of DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi became the party youth wing secretary in 1982, a legislator in 1989, the mayor of Chennai in 1996, and a minister in 2006. Only in 2021 did he finally become chief minister.In hindsight, Stalin might come to regret elevating Udhayanidhi as minister in 2022 and deputy CM in 2024. Anointing his actor son, 48, as successor too quickly cemented resentment against the DMK, sapped it of the argument of being a party driven by ideology, and emboldened critics. The DMK’s weakness against incumbency – it has never successfully defended a government in almost 50 years – and entrenched corruption among lower-rung leaders amplified its generational problem, especially when it faced off against the more charismatic Vijay.Once among the most outspoken advocates of federalism, Stalin will now find his national voice muted. The DMK’s position within the INDIA bloc will erode, as will Tamil Nadu’s place in the national opposition’s larger plan. Vijay’s victory will mean larger realignments within the Dravidian duopoly. The DMK’s generational transition may also come unstuck.Himanta Biswa SarmaIf there is a cautionary tale for the perils of dynastic politics, it must be Himanta Biswa Sarma. An acolyte of former Congress CM Tarun Gogoi, Sarma left the Congress in 2014 after sensing that his political guru was pushing for son Gaurav Gogoi to succeed him. Since then, mama – as he is affectionately known – has turned Assam into a northeastern fortress for the BJP. Yet, 2026 was far from settled. The Congress had done surprisingly well in the 2024 general elections. This was the first election Sarma was facing as the public face of the party in the state. Faced with a tough election, Sarma delivered in spades. His administrative record, welfare push and anti-migrant pitch helped the NDA hit a century. In every region, the BJP was ahead of the Opposition, and Gogoi’s loss from Jorhat must be of personal satisfaction. Sarma is now among the tallest BJP chief ministers with a rapidly growing national profile. Whether he will step out of Guwahati for the next stint of his political career will be keenly watched.