Vijay's TVK no. 1 party in Tamil Nadu, but short of majority. What happens next - scenarios explained

THe Tamil Nadu gathering elections 2026 results threw a surprisal for many, as actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerged as the single-largest company in the say.But the TVK strike down short of the majority mark of 118, with the party formed in 2024 winning 107 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu assembly. The ruling DMK managed alliance managed 74 seats while the NDA came a distant third with 53.Others outside these three blocs (TVK was fighting solo) did not get even a single seat.With no single party or alliance winning enough seats to form the government, it is natural to wonder what will happen next in Tamil Nadu. Will Vijay become the first non-DMK non-AIADMK chief minister of the state since 1967? Who will he tie up with? Here are the possible scenarios:What happens next in Tamil Nadu after no party secures a majority?TVK takes smaller parties with itOne thing Vijay and the TVK could do is to take the smaller parties from the DMK alliance with them to form the government. The party needs 11 MLAs to form the government. The smaller parties (including Congress) in the DMK alliance have 14. HT earlier reported that a section of Congress wanted a pre-poll alliance with the TVK and could still support Vijay with its five members. The two Left parties (CPI and CPI(M)) each have two legislators. If these go with the TVK, Vijay would need just a couple more to form the government, which the Dalit-centric Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) could provide.The only problem with this is the impact it will have on the broader opposition alliance in the country and the DMK’s role in it. Will the DMK remain aligned with the INDIA bloc if Congress and others ditch it in the state?DMK+ supports TVKThe other possible scenario is that the entire DMK+ alliance supports TVK, and Vijay becomes the chief minister without much difficulty. This is both mathematically and politically plausible, as it won't impact the broader opposition alliance on the national level. In fact, it will only strengthen it with TVK’s inclusion.But is the DMK ready to do that? There has been no indication so far that it will happen. Vijay calls DMK his “political rival” and has directly targeted the party on several occasions. Some analysts also suggest that Vijay might not go with the DMK, as he might be wary of public reaction following voters' rejection of the MK Stalin-led government. But another way to see it is that the voters put faith in Vijay, but their second choice, if TVK were not in the fray, seems to be the DMK with 60 seats alone.The AIADMK factorAnother way this could go is if the opposition AIADMK supports TVK in forming the government. But there has been no indication of that either. In fact, public statements have largely been contrary to the TVK and AIADMK coming together.Senior AIADMK leader C. Ponnaiyan stated on Monday that the party would decline any alliance offer from TVK. But to be sure, these comments came while the counting was still going on.TVK's strategist, John Arokiasamy, reiterated that the party has "no interest in AIADMK or BJP," citing opposition to "divisive politics and corruption”Another significant obstacle to any future alliance is TVK's firm stance against the BJP. TVK has repeatedly signalled it will not align with the AIADMK-BJP axis and calls the saffron party its “ideological enemy”, meaning any deal might require AIADMK to exit the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).