UDF’s big gains came in minority dominated districts

THe Congress-led-UDF’s sail in Kerala was especially seeable in the say’s regions with important nonage population. The UDF had a vote share of 51.9% and 50.2% in constituencies in districts having significant Muslim and Christian population in the state respectively, compared to 42.1% in the rest of the state.Since seat-wise religious data is not available, this analysis uses district-level Census 2011 data as a proxy, taking seats in districts where Muslims or Christians account for more than 30% of the population. This is an imperfect measure of voter demography, but it helps test whether the UDF’s gains were also concentrated in places where Kerala’s two largest minority communities are demographically important. Muslims account for 26.6% of Kerala’s population and Christians for 18.4%, according to Census 2011.The Muslim-significant region comprises Kasaragod, Kozhikode and Malappuram districts, which together have 34 Assembly seats. The UDF won 31 of them, leaving the LDF with just three seats. Malappuram was a complete sweep for the UDF, with the alliance winning all 16 seats. Kozhikode too moved strongly towards the UDF, which won 11 of 13 seats. The LDF’s losses in this belt are also visible in vote share. Across these 34 constituencies, LDF’s vote share fell by an average of 7.7 percentage points from 2021, while UDF’s rose by 7.6 points. The UDF improved its vote share in every single seat in this bucket, while the LDF declined in 32 of 34 seats.(See chart 1) The biggest UDF gains in the Muslim-significant districts came in Elathur, where its vote share rose by 16.2 percentage points, followed by Nilambur, Tirurangadi and Manjeshwar. The result in Thavanur was politically notable too. Congress candidate V S Joy, a Christian leader, won in Malappuram district, a region where Muslims form an overwhelming majority. Reports described this as a rare cross-community result in a seat where the UDF’s gain was not simply about candidate identity matching the district’s dominant religious profile. The pattern was similar in Christian-significant districts, including Ernakulam, Idukki, Kottayam and Pathanamthitta, which together have 33 assembly seats. The UDF won 32 of them. It swept Ernakulam and Kottayam, won four of five seats in Idukki, and four of five in Pathanamthitta. The LDF was left with only Konni in this entire belt.Here too, the vote-share shift was large. The LDF’s vote share fell by an average of 8.1 percentage points from 2021, while the UDF’s rose by 9.1 points. The UDF improved in 31 of 33 seats, while the LDF declined in 32. The sharpest swing came in Udumbanchola, where sitting MLA and senior CPIM leader MM Mani was not fielded this time in favour of K K Jayachandran--the LDF’s vote share fell by 24.8 points and the UDF’s rose by 22.3 points. Puthuppally, Ettumanoor, Kochi, Vypen, Perumbavoor and Thrikkakara also saw double-digit UDF gains.The result also shifted the balance within Kerala Congress politics. Jose K Mani’s LDF-aligned Kerala Congress (M) drew a blank, including Jose’s own defeat in Pala, while the UDF-aligned Kerala Congress of the PJ Joseph camp won seven seats.This is politically significant as both come from the same long and fragmented Kerala Congress tradition, which itself began in 1964 as a breakaway from the Indian National Congress, and has significant influence in Christian-dominated regions of the state. Kerala Congress (M) was formed by KM Mani in 1979 after a split from the parent Kerala Congress, but after many more splits, the Mani and Joseph groups reunited in 2010 when PJ Joseph’s Kerala Congress faction left the LDF and merged with Kerala Congress (M). The rivalry reopened after K M Mani’s death in 2019, when a power struggle between Jose K Mani and PJ Joseph split the party again.(See chart 2)In short, in both Muslim-significant north Kerala and Christian-significant central Kerala, the UDF expanded its vote share sharply, while the LDF’s erosion was broad and consistent.