Ford losing support in wake of jet controversy, polls suggest

Doug john ford’s now-grounded contrive to purchase a buck private gush highlights a trend of softening support for the premier and his government, say some experts and polling analysts. They warn the controversy could be a sign of deeper unease with the Tories’ agenda.

Ontario’s premier has seen his political favourability take a beating in several public polls released after his government spent nearly $29 million to buy a private jet — a purchase he then walked back in the face of public outrage. Surveys from Abacus Data and Liaison Strategies suggest the Ontario Progressive Conservatives have dropped into a statistical tie for support with the Ontario Liberals for the first time in years.

Éric Grenier, a polling analyst from the The Writ, said the polls suggest the public reception to the jet controversy has sped up an erosion of support for the Tories that has been underway for months. In late 2025 government support was at a high of mid-40 percentage points, which fell to the high-30s eight months later.

“It has been pretty sustained for a while,” Grenier said. “The PCs have been dropping pretty slowly, but pretty consistently, since last fall.”

Ont. Government buys private jet for Doug Ford to use

The Liaison survey suggests the Liberals have 38 per cent support to the Tories' 36 per cent of respondents. The interactive voice response poll was conducted on April 25 and 26, with a sample of 1,000 Ontario residents. A probabilistic sample of this size would yield a margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

The Abacus Data survey suggests the Tories and Liberals are running neck-and-neck, with the PCs at 37 per cent support, and the Liberals at 36 per cent. That opt-in panel of 1,000 Ontario residents was conducted from April 17 to 20. 

A comparable margin of error for a probabilistic sample of this size would be +/-3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. 

“We've just seen in poll after poll that they have ticked down by one or two points,” said Grenier. “I think this is a longer-term thing, and that is more dangerous for the PCs.”

Grenier said the Abacus findings are of particular note because its previous surveys found larger leads for the Tories, including reaching a high of 53 per cent support last August. 

“It tells me that something real is happening here, at least in terms of PC support,” he said.

Ford, province to sell $28.9M private jet after public backlash

Word of the jet purchase leaked out several weeks ago, with the government initially defending the move, but just days later Ford announced he would sell it back to manufacturer Bombardier. 

“I should have been out there and made the case and given the ‘why’,” Ford said.

Grenier said the recent softening of PC support makes the party’s decision to call an early election last year all the more prescient in retrospect. At the time, Ford harnessed the anger over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats to swept to a third-straight majority government.

Ford triggered the election in early 2025, well ahead of the fixed vote date of June 2026. Had the premier stuck to the original election calendar, he’d be preparing to fight a much different campaign at this moment, Grenier said.

“This extra year in office has meant just an extra year of baggage,” he said. “I think it has been accelerated a little bit by the recent controversy over the purchase of the government jet.”

Grenier said the level of support suggested in the polls could still see Ford win an election.

“They would probably be in minority territory and close enough to the Liberals that even a victory wouldn't be assured,” he said.

Conservative strategist Samuel Duncan said he’s taking all of the polls in recent weeks with a grain of salt, with at least three years to go before the next vote. But reversing course on the jet purchase was the right thing to do, he said.

“I think the recognition of the landscape right now is not the time for a purchase like this to be made,” said Duncan, who is a vice-president at Wellington Advocacy and once worked in Ford’s office. 

Duncan said he also expects the government to introduce new measures in the coming months to provide cost of living relief. That will be part of an effort to get his messaging back on track after the jet controversy, he added.

“I would expect that this [jet] incident will focus their attention and they’ll reprioritize pocketbook affordability issues for Ontarians.”

Duncan said he’s also skeptical of the polls because of the standing Ontario Liberal Party, which doesn't have a permanent leader. He says the Grits are getting a bump from their popular federal cousins under Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Grenier said he, too, thinks there is uncertainty around the provincial Liberal numbers in the polling.

“It suggests that a lot of the Liberal support is not really all that baked in,” he said.

Liberal strategist Charles Bird attributes the dip in Tory polling to the age of the government, which has been in office for nearly eight years.

“I don't see this as a bump in the road as much as the road slowly trending downhill, as happens with incumbent governments over time,” said Bird, a principal at consulting firm Earnscliffe.

“And it's quite difficult to reverse that kind of trend.” 

Bird said other unpopular policies like changes to freedom of information laws and its plan to take over the Toronto island airport aren’t helping the PCs.

“An accumulation of baggage is something that happens to governments regardless of how popular their leadership is,” he said, adding that he’s not counting the Tories out.

“The Ontario Progressive Conservatives are a very well-oiled political machine.”

Grenier said Ford has shown political resilience, even in the face of numerous scandals during his time in office.

“We have seen over time that Doug Ford's approval rating can go up and down,” Grenier said. 

This week, the premier shifted back to safer ground, re-focusing his message on fighting Trump, his tariffs and building trade. He dismissed the polls during a Monday press conference.

“I hate to ruin your day, but if the election was held today, I'd end up with a fourth majority government,” he said to reporters.

“I know that's disappointing, but we're going to focus, not on polls, we're going to focus on the economy. We're going to focus on creating more jobs.”

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