Suspense in Tamil Nadu as Vijay’s majority math yet to add up

ACtor-turned-politician C chief joseph Vijay met Tamil Nadu regulator Rajendra Arlekar on wed to post lay claim to power but wasn’t invited to form the next government as officials said Lok Bhavan was seeking legal opinion to ensure the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) commanded a majority.Vijay’s rookie outfit shattered a 50-year-old Dravidian duopoly to emerge as the single-largest party in assembly elections earlier this week, winning 108 seats, 10 short of a simple majority in the 234-member House. He has the support of the Congress’s five lawmakers but is yet to secure explicit backing from any other party.On Wednesday, Vijay submitted a list of TVK and Congress lawmakers who pledged support, said leaders in the Tamil Nadu Congress who asked not to be named. But Lok Bhavan officials indicated that a formal decision on inviting Vijay to form the government and holding the swearing-in ceremony had not yet been made. The officials added that the governor was also seeking legal opinion.“The governor wants to be sure that Vijay has the support of a majority of MLAs,” an official said on the condition of anonymity. Lok Bhavan did not officially respond to HT’s queries on why Vijay was not invited.On Wednesday evening, Arlekar dissolved the 16th legislative assembly with effect from May 5, Lok Bhavan said.The churn in the southern state following the dramatic assembly election results has triggered flux in both major alliances.The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has criticised the Congress for abandoning its two-decade-old alliance to support the actor. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) denied reports that it was considering backing the TVK after lawmaker Leema Rose Martin said talks were underway. And the Left and Indian Union Muslim League have pledged support to the DMK, ruling out backing Vijay.The half-way mark in Tamil Nadu is 118, and there are many combinations that can arrive at this number; late on Wednesday evening, social media was buzzing with rumours on various alliances that would achieve this number, including an improbable combination of arch-rivals DMK and AIADMK, though DMK spokesperson A Saravanan denied the reports to news channel Times Now.Vijay contested from two seats and won both. The 51-year-old has to resign from one seat within 14 days of the election result being notified.The DMK won 59 seats, the AIADMK 47, the Congress 5, PMK 4, and VCK, IUML, CPI, and CPI (M) two each. The BJP, AMMK and DMDK won one seat each.With the governor not inviting Vijay to form the government, the TVK’s plans to hold a mega swearing-in ceremony at Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium on May 7 in Chennai may be delayed. TVK workers were seen on Wednesday preparing the venue for the grand ceremony.In India, governors usually call the single-largest party to form the government if no single party or pre-poll alliance crosses the halfway mark, as happened in Maharashtra in 2019. However, there is no law for such scenarios and the Constitution leaves it to the governor’s discretion.Legal expert Vijayan Subramanian said the governor created “confusion”. “In SR Bommai versus Union of India, the Supreme Court categorically held that the question of majority must ordinarily be tested only on the floor of the legislative assembly and not through the Governor’s personal or subjective assessment,” he said.Subramanian added that insisting an elected leader first parade or individually demonstrate support before the governor, without a floor test, could contradict the constitutional principles laid down by the Supreme Court.On Wednesday morning, Congress Tamil Nadu in-charge Girish Chodankar handed over a letter of support to Vijay at TVK’s headquarters at Panaiyar near Chennai.Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) Leader Thol Thirumavalavan said he and the Left parties received letters from Vijay, seeking their support. “We will take a decision later,” he said.The VCK, CPI and CPI (M) were all part of the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA), along with the Congress.The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), which is an ally of the Congress in Kerala and has two MLAs in Tamil Nadu, has said that it will not support the TVK.IUML chief KM Kader Mohideen said the SPA was not an “electoral alliance” but an ideological one.“We have been continuously emphasising that this is an alliance based on principles,” he said.“We have faced defeat now. But we are clear that neither the DMK nor the Muslim community would give up because of the defeat. There is no confusion that -just as we were yesterday with the DMK-led SPA and with MK Stalin, we are here today. Just as we are here today, we will be there tomorrow as well,” he added.The two Left parties expressed their support to the DMK. CPI (M) state secretary P Shanmugam said the Left parties are in alliance with the SPA and rejected claims that it was invited by the TVK to form its alliance.The AIADMK ruled out supporting the TVK. Party deputy general secretary KP Munusamy said, “In any situation, the AIADMK has not extended support to the TVK. We are issuing this clarification as per the directions of our party’s general secretary.”The comment holds significance as newly elected MLA from Lalgudi, Leema Rose Martin, had told reporters on Tuesday that talks between the TVK and the AIADMK were ongoing.The Congress asserted that it would be part of the new government led by the TVK and share the responsibility of governance. In both the DMK and AIADMK governments, alliance partners were not part of the government.But this caused heartburn within the DMK. Party spokesperson Saravanan Annadurai accused the Congress of betraying INDIA bloc partners. “I think this is a very short-sighted, myopic stand taken by the Congress, which they will regret,” he said.