Vijay's struggle for majority: Won 108, stuck at 113, how Tamil Nadu poll winner TVK's numbers are stacked

WBadly Vijay spring a regime in Tamil Nadu? A call into question in focalize since the Election Commission declared the results for the 2026 assembly polls. The actor-turned-politician's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) with just two years of political experience, swept the polls to register a landmark debut, securing 108 of the 234 seats in the Tamil Nadu assembly.TVK broke past a nearly five-decade-old Dravidian rule and emerged as the single-largest party in the state. Follow live updates on Tamil Nadu government formationThough a massive victory, the 'Thalapathy's' party fell short of the magic figure of 118 seats required to form the government in the state.First, let's take a look at the result numbers:Vijay's TVK secured 108 seats, including the two seats the party chief contested from -- Perambur and Trichy East. However, within 14 days of the election result being notified, the actor-turned-politician has to resign from one seat. The outgoing Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) - Congress alliance won 73 seats. Of these, DMK secured 59 seats, and Congress bagged five. Their other allies, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), Communist Party of India (CPI), CPI(Marxist), and Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) secured two seats each, while the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) managed to bag just one seat.Take a look at Tamil Nadu election results in 3D on HT's siteThe National Democratic Alliance (NDA) bagged 53 seats, wherein the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) bagged 47 seats, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) won four seats, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMKMNKZ) bagged one seat each.Questions over who Vijay will pickAs the numbers for Vijay's TVK became clearer before the ECI formally announced the results, questions arose over what the 'Thalapathy's options are in case he fell short of the majority. This came against the backdropThese doubts were based on Vijay's earlier remarks, in which he called the BJP his "ideological opponent" and called the outgoing chief minister MK Stalin's DMK an "evil force".Congress offers conditional support to TVKOn Wednesday, the Congress agreed to back Vijay's party to form the government in Tamil Nadu. But, on one condition.Congress said it is ready to support Vijay, provided he keeps "communal forces that do not believe in the Constitution of India" out of the alliance.The party's statement came in response to Vijay's request for support after the TVK fell short of the required 118 seats. In a letter, the Congress stated that the people of Tamil Nadu, especially the youth, have given the verdict in favour of a secular, progressive and welfarist government that believes in constitutional principles.The party said that it was its "constitutional duty" to respect people's mandate in the state, saying that it has decided to extend its full support to the TVK to form the government.Would TVK-Congress numbers be enough?Unfortunately, for Vijay, the answer is no. Even with the backing of Congress, TVK would not have the majority to form the government. Vijay has 108 seats, and Congress has five, totalling up to 113 seats. But, they still fall short of 5 seats.Two possible options that did the roundsTVK chief Vijay met Tamil Nadu governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar at the Lok Bhavan on Wednesday. Before his meeting, talks about two possible options the governor could offer Vijay surfaced.First, Arlekar could summon Vijay and instruct him to project his majority on the floor of the Tamil Nadu legislative assembly. Second, he might ask Vijay to gather letters from supporting parties and submit them to him.What happened at Vijay-governor meet?Though TVK chief Vijay met governor Rajendra Arlekar to stake the claim to power, he wasn't invited to form the next government. Lok Bhavan was seeking legal opinion to ensure that TVK had a majority.Vijay submitted a list of TVK and Congress lawmakers who backed his party, HT reported earlier. However, Lok Sabha officials said that the governor "wants to be sure" that Vijay has the support of a majority of MLAs.ALSO READ | Will Vijay form a government? Outgoing Tamil Nadu CM Stalin says 'will wait and watch...'With the governor declining to invite the TVK chief to form the government, the party's plans for a grand oath-taking ceremony at Chennai's Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium on May 7 were delayed.What does the law say?Governors usually call on the single-largest party to form the government in the state if no single party or pre-poll alliance crosses the halfway mark in India. A scenario that has previously unfolded in Maharashtra in 2019.However, there is no law for such a situation. The Constitution leaves the decision to the governor.Legal expert Vijayan Subramanian, as reported earlier by HT, said that Arlekar has created "confusion."He cited SR Bommai v Union of India to say that the Supreme Court categorically held that the question of majority must ordinarily be tested only on the assembly floor and not through the governor's personal assessment.Having an elected leader parade or individually demonstrate a majority before the governor without a floor test could contradict the constitutional principles laid down by the apex court, Subramanian added.Would AIADMK break up with BJP to back TVK?After Congress, one of TVK's top options to achieve a majority would be AIADMK's backing. However, the party, led by Edappadi K Palaniswami, made it clear that it would extend support to Vijay's party in forming the government.The party has not backed the TVK under any circumstances so far, the AIADMK said.AIADMK deputy general secretary KP Munusamy dismissed reports of the party's backing for TVK, terming them to be "entirely false".ALSO READ | Vijay-Rahul Gandhi combination could have won us 180-190 seats, says Congress' Tamil Nadu in-charge"Under no circumstances the AIADMK will support the TVK. We are issuing this clarification as per the instruction of our party general secretary (Edappadi K Palaniswami)," news agency PTI reported, citing Munusamy.What about Congress allies?The VCK, CPI, CPI(M), IUML, and DMDK are all part of the Congress-DMK alliance. With Congress breaking away to extend support to Vijay's TVK, would other allying parties, of course, excluding MK Stalin's party, back Vijay?VCK leader Thol Thirumavalavan said that while he and the Left parties received letters from Vijay, seeking their support, they would take a "decision later".The IUML, meanwhile, has given a clear answer. The party has said that it will not back TVK.IUML chief KM Kader Mohideen said that DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA), of which it was a part, was not an "electoral alliance" but an ideological one.Mohideen said that even though SPA has been defeated in the 2026 polls, there is no confusion that "neither the DMK nor the Muslim Community would give up because of the defeat."He said that their alliance would remain today just as it did yesterday.Meanwhile, CPI(M) rejected claims of having been invited by the TVK to form an alliance and said that the Left parties are in the DMK-led alliance.Vijay meets governor againOn Thursday, TVK chief Vijay met governor Rajendra Arlekar once again at the Lok Bhavan to convince him of his party's majority. The meeting reportedly last for over 45 minutes. The Lok Bhavan later said in a statement that Arlekar explained to Vijay that the "requisite majority support in the Tamil Nadu Legislative assembly, essential for forming the Government, has not been established."Meanwhile, AIADMK seeks governor's timeAmid the pre-existing chaos over whether Vijay would be able to form a government in Tamil Nadu, the opposition AIADMK has sought time to meet the Tamil Nadu governor. The reason? That remains unknown.A final look at numbersAt the moment, Vijay's TVK has Congress's support, but is still short of a majority. If we were to assume that Congress's allies from the DMK-led alliance might cross over, here's what we could be looking at:Parties in the DMK-led SPA: Congress, VCK, CPI, CPI(M), IUML, DMDK.Congress has taken its five seats to back Vijay, and now TVK is at 113 seats.IUML has said no, indicating the numbers remain stagnant. CPI(M) has also suggested that it won't support Vijay's party, again, no gains for TVK.VCK's decision is pending, suggesting that it may or may not back Vijay. If VCK says no, then TVK would be at crossroads again. However, if VCK, which won two seats in the elections, says yes to Vijay, the numbers in his support would go up to 115. Again, short of a majority, but with a narrowed gap.Further, TVK's tally will be reduced by two counts: First, because party chief Vijay would have to resign from one of the two seats he has won. And second, the party would choose one of the elected leaders as the legislative assembly's Speaker, who would not be eligible to vote in the House. Therefore, from 108, the party's count will fall to 106, and later would increase to 107, if the party's candidate wins the bypoll for the seat Vijay gives up.While there is no word from DMKDK on whether it will support TVK or TVK, even if it does, Vijay would be short of two seats of the required number to form a government.It remains to be seen whether Vijay will form the government in Tamil Nadu, and if he does, how it will happen.(with inputs from S Vijay Karthik)