Vijay's journey to majority: TVK wins, yet grapples with math to form Tamil Nadu govt

ON May 4, something genuinely unprecedented happened in Tamil Nadu — a tell where movie theater often intersects with political relation. A two-year-old company, founded by a shoot actor, built on fan clubs, and dismissed by veteran political observers as a romantic long shot, did not just win. It reshaped the state's political map.But it did not win by enough that day, until it finally claimed to have hit the majority mark with support from other parties four days later. Yet, there was no formal invitation from the Governor to form the government. When the math seems to work, political twists continue.The CPI(M) backing Vijay said the oath ceremony would be held on Saturday, 11am. But formal confirmation was not in. Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-turned-politician C Joseph Vijay, emerged as the single largest party with 108 seats, ending a 59-year stranglehold of the Dravidian duopoly — the DMK and the AIADMK — on Tamil Nadu's politics.The incumbent chief minister, MK Stalin of the DMK, lost his own seat in Kolathur, a constituency he had won three times before. A seismic result.And yet, by the morning of May 5, Vijay's triumph already had an asterisk. It had 108 seats, not 118. And 118, the simple majority mark in a 234-member House, is the number that matters when you want to govern.Not just math, but a political problem tooTVK had contested alone across all constituencies. Vijay had repeatedly declared, in the months before the election, that he would have no truck with either the AIADMK-BJP or the DMK-Congress."Not publicly, not even behind closed doors," he said of the BJP in particular. The DMK, too, represented the old powers he said TVK was born to replace.With no pre-poll alliance partners, the TVK had no automatic reservoir of support to draw from when it fell short by 10.Making matters trickier, Vijay had won from two constituencies, Perambur and Tiruchirappalli East. The law requires him to vacate one, bringing TVK's effective tally down to 107 actually usable legislators.First move: Congress breaks ranksThe first party to blink was the Indian National Congress, which had won five seats as part of the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA). In a late-night meeting on May 5, the Congress decided to back TVK but with a simple condition, that the TVK would never align with the “communal forces”, the BJP.The TVK had cited former Tamil Nadu CM K Kamaraj — a Congress stalwart — as one of its ideological icons. That may have made the conversation easier. The Congress state unit referred the decision to the national unit in Delhi, which promptly sent it back to the state unit to decide. The state unit said yes.The DMK was furious; at a legislature party meeting, it passed a resolution calling it a “major betrayal”. Senior DMK leader TKS Elangovan said, ”The INDIA bloc is gone. We will reframe the alliance.” The INDIA bloc led by the Congress had managed to bring the Narendra Modi regime’s numbers down in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.Anyhow, in the here and now, the Congress's five MLAs pushed Vijay’s numbers to 112. Still six short.Left and VCKThe remaining arithmetic depended on the Left parties — CPI and CPI(M), two seats each — and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), also with two seats. All three were still formally part of the DMK-led SPA. Backing TVK meant crossing an ally already incensed by the Congress exit.The CPI executive committee weighed "pros and cons”. The CPI(M) held its state committee meeting. The VCK's Thol Thirumavalavan called an online high-level committee meeting, and announced the party's decision would come Saturday. Thirumavalavan offered some pointed commentary in the meantime, questioning whether Vijay had mishandled the post-result situation. He said there was a contradiction in that the TVK, which opposed dynasty politics, was now allying with the Congress. The DMK too, however, is accused of nepotism. MK Stalin is the son of former CM M Karunanidhi, who was a highly influential film scriptwriter and used cinema to propel Dravidian ideology into mass popularity.Back in the present, for Vijay the script kept getting trickier as of Friday evening. The existing Tamil Nadu assembly's tenure is to expire on May 10. If no government is formed by then, the Governor could impose President's Rule — effectively central, BJP-administered rule in a state where the BJP had won exactly one seat.After 3 meetsGovernor Rajendra Arlekar added the major layer of tension. Even after the Congress extended support, bringing TVK's combine to 112, he did not invite Vijay to form the government, citing that 112 remained short of majority.Constitutional convention, critics noted, requires a Governor to invite the single largest party to attempt government formation and then establish a majority on the floor of the House — not as a precondition to receiving the invitation.CPI general secretary D Raja called the delay a breach of established parliamentary practice. Congress MP Jebi Mather alleged a "hidden agenda”. Vijay met the Governor three times in three days.On Friday afternoon, May 8, the magic number was reached. CPI state secretary M Veerapandiyan and CPI(M) state secretary P Shanmugam held a joint press conference and announced their support for TVK.Shanmugam said, "With the aim of thwarting the objective of the BJP, the CPI and CPI(M) have resolved to provide support." The VCK's Thirumavalavan, they confirmed, had told them he would go along with their decision. The IUML, with two MLAs, followed with support shortly after.The support arrived just before Vijay's third meeting with the Governor on Friday evening. But the invite still did not. It was not immediately clear why.Final tallyNow the math stood thus as per TVK backers — TVK (after Vijay vacating one of his two seats) 107; Congress 5; two each from CPI, CPI(M), and IUML; for a total of 118. VCK's two could take it to 120. Majority mark in the assembly would now be 117 with 233 members in play (Vijay has won two seats, as mentioned before).The bigger pictureThere is a certain political irony woven through this entire episode.Vijay built the TVK explicitly as an alternative to the Dravidian old guard and as an ideological adversary of the BJP. He won without a single alliance partner. And yet to govern, he needed — and received — the support of every significant former ally of the very party he defeated.The DMK, meanwhile, finds itself in a position it has not occupied in decades. In opposition now, abandoned by some of the allies it cultivated over years, and watching them help a rival take power. Whether Tamil Nadu's political realignment is permanent, or not, is the question that will define the state's politics long after Vijay's oath ceremony, whenever that happens.For now, the math looks set to work. The government will be formed at some point. Thalapathy — ‘the commander’ — may just have to wait a tad bit more to take the chair.