5+2+2+2-2: Why math is not mathing for TVK's Vijay to form Tamil Nadu govt

TAmil Nadu regulator Rajendra Arlekar juggles a Shakesperean call into question every clip actor-turned-politician C chief joseph Vijay approaches him seeking to take form the government. The two have met thrice in three days, with Vijay each time failing to conclusively demonstrate majority support.Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerged as the single-largest party with 108 seats in the 234-member Assembly, but the effective tally dropped after Vijay won from two constituencies and is required to vacate one seat. With the halfway mark at 118, the TVK has been scrambling for the additional 11 seats from smaller parties and former allies of the DMK-led alliance.Early reports suggested the TVK had crossed the halfway mark after securing support from the Left parties and indications of backing from the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi. But confusion erupted after the VCK stopped short of issuing a formal letter of support, while a parallel controversy broke out over a purported support letter from Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazagam. AMMK chief TTV Dhinakaran later accused TVK supporters of circulating a “forged” letter claiming his party’s support for Vijay and reiterated that his lone MLA backed the AIADMK-led NDA alliance. Sources indicated that the Governor was unwilling to invite Vijay to form the government without written proof of support from at least 118 MLAs. Conflicting statements from potential allies, unclear letters of support, and competing claims from rival blocs have further delayed the process.Track Live Updates on Tamil Nadu government formation hereCongress backs Vijay, but only on one condition (5 seats)Congress became the first major party to formally support TVK after breaking ranks with the DMK-led alliance. Congress' support came with clear political conditions. The party said its backing was contingent on TVK keeping “communal forces” out of the alliance - an indirect reference to the BJP and NDA.Tamil Nadu Congress chief K Selvaperunthagai later revealed that TVK had offered Congress two ministerial berths and one Rajya Sabha seat. Congress also indicated the alliance was intended to continue into future local body and parliamentary elections.However, Congress' five MLAs alone were insufficient to push Vijay over the majority mark.CPI backs Vijay for 'stable government' (2 seats)The Communist Party of India announced support to Vijay, but described it as “conditional support” aimed at ensuring “stable, secular and democratic governance” in Tamil Nadu.CPI state secretary M Veerapandian said the decision was taken to respect the people’s mandate and prevent political instability or President’s Rule in the state. The party clarified it would support the government from outside and would not seek cabinet positions.CPI(M) offers unconditional outside support (2 seats)The Communist Party of India (Marxist) has formally announced support to TVK for government formation and stressed that it would remain outside the cabinet.CPI(M) state secretary P Shanmugam said the Left parties intervened to avoid prolonged uncertainty and to stop what he described as a possible “backdoor entry” of the BJP into Tamil Nadu politics.The Marxist party also maintained that it would continue its ideological alignment with the DMK on issues related to state rights and federalism.VCK support remains uncertain amid power-sharing demands (2 seats)The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi emerged as the most crucial yet uncertain player in the numbers game. While Left leaders repeatedly claimed that VCK would support TVK, no formal letter from the party had reportedly been submitted to the Governor till Friday evening.Then came a post on late Friday evening from the party's official X handle saying that they had sent a letter of support to Vijay. But the tweet was soon deleted and the account suspended - in under an hour. VCK chief Thol Thirumavalavan has so far avoided making an official announcement, but VCK deputy general secretary Vanni Arasu publicly demanded a deputy chief minister’s post and a cabinet berth for extending support.The ambiguity surrounding VCK's position became one of the biggest reasons behind the delay in government formation.IUML says yes, then backs outThe Indian Union Muslim League added to the confusion surrounding government formation after initially signalling support for Vijay’s government formation bid before later publicly distancing itself from TVK.Earlier on Friday, IUML statements suggesting that its two MLAs would support “initiatives by the Governor towards the government formation” were interpreted as indirect backing for Vijay. Some Left leaders also claimed that IUML had submitted letters of support to help TVK reach the majority mark.However, later in the day, IUML leader AM Shahjahan firmly denied extending support to TVK and dismissed reports of any support letter as “rumours”.“We did not support anybody. We did not give any letter to anybody. All these are rumours. We are continuing in the alliance under the leadership of DMK,” Shahjahan told reporters.The reversal dealt another blow to Vijay's efforts to convince Governor Rajendra Arlekar that TVK had the numbers required to form the government. AMMK backs AIADMK, accuses TVK of forgery (1 seat)The sharpest opposition to Vijay's efforts came from the Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazagam led by TTV Dhinakaran.Dhinakaran formally wrote to the Governor backing Edappadi K Palaniswami as chief minister and urged that the AIADMK be invited to form the government.He also accused TVK supporters of circulating a “forged” letter claiming AMMK’s support for Vijay and described it as “horse-trading” and a “mockery of democracy”.AMMK's lone MLA staying with the NDA bloc dealt another setback to Vijay’s numbers.DMK and AIADMK stay away amid speculationThe two traditional Dravidian rivals — Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam — have not backed Vijay.Speculation over a possible DMK-AIADMK understanding briefly intensified amid the hung verdict, but leaders from both camps privately dismissed the idea as politically unsustainable.The DMK, which won 59 seats, and the AIADMK, which secured 47, have instead watched the post-poll negotiations unfold from the sidelines while trying to protect their respective alliances.Governor yet to take final callConflicting claims continue over whether Vijay had secured support from 116, 117 or 118 MLAs. While TVK leaders expressed confidence that Vijay would eventually be sworn in as chief minister on Saturday, Raj Bhavan sources indicated that the Governor remained unconvinced about the numbers placed before him.Until formal letters from all supporting parties are verified and the majority mark is clearly crossed, Tamil Nadu's government formation process is expected to remain in limbo.