5+2+2+2+2: How math is finally mathing for TVK's Vijay to form Tamil Nadu govt

TAmil Nadu regulator Rajendra Arlekar no yearner has to pilot the post-poll teaser surrounding C chief joseph Vijay’s majority claims. After three days of frantic negotiations, shifting alliance positions, suspense over crucial allies and a dramatic horse-trading controversy, Vijay has finally crossed the majority mark required to form the next government in the state. The breakthrough came after the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) formally backed the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), taking the actor-politician's tally past the majority mark of 118 in the 234-member Assembly.Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerged as the single-largest party with 108 seats in the 234-member Assembly, but the effective tally dropped after Vijay won from two constituencies and is required to vacate one seat. With the halfway mark at 118, the TVK scrambled for the additional 11 seats from smaller parties and former allies of the DMK-led alliance.The numbers now comfortably add up for Vijay. Along with TVK’s effective strength of 107, the party has secured support from the Indian National Congress (5), Communist Party of India (2), Communist Party of India (Marxist) (2), VCK (2), and the Indian Union Muslim League (2), taking Vijay’s tally to 120 — two above the majority mark needed to form the government. Early reports on Friday suggested the TVK had crossed the halfway mark after securing support from the Left parties and indications of backing from the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi. But confusion erupted after the VCK stopped short of issuing a formal letter of support, while a parallel controversy broke out over a purported support letter from Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazagam. AMMK chief TTV Dhinakaran later accused TVK supporters of circulating a “forged” letter claiming his party’s support for Vijay and reiterated that his lone MLA backed the AIADMK-led NDA alliance. Track Live Updates on Tamil Nadu government formation hereVCK finally comes around (2 seats)The biggest breakthrough in Vijay’s race to power came after VCK chief Thol Thirumavalavan formally announced support for a TVK-led government on Saturday, ending days of suspense over the party’s stand.Thirumavalavan said the decision was taken to prevent President’s Rule in Tamil Nadu and to ensure that the people’s mandate in favour of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam was respected. He said the VCK’s stand was in line with the position already taken by the Left parties.“Due to the prevailing uncertainty in government formation, especially with the TVK lacking the simple majority to form the government on its own, and no other political party anywhere close to the magic number of 118 seats, it was necessary to support the TVK in its efforts to form the government,” Thirumavalavan said.The VCK chief added that the party would continue to remain part of the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance and insisted that its ties with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam would remain unaffected by the decision.“Our ties with the DMK will not get affected due to our stand, but it will help Vijay to form the government and also prevent the President’s Rule in the state,” he said.Congress backs Vijay, but only on one condition (5 seats)Congress became the first major party to formally support TVK after breaking ranks with the DMK-led alliance. Congress' support came with clear political conditions. The party said its backing was contingent on TVK keeping “communal forces” out of the alliance - an indirect reference to the BJP and NDA.Tamil Nadu Congress chief K Selvaperunthagai later revealed that TVK had offered Congress two ministerial berths and one Rajya Sabha seat. Congress also indicated the alliance was intended to continue into future local body and parliamentary elections.However, Congress' five MLAs alone were insufficient to push Vijay over the majority mark.CPI backs Vijay for 'stable government' (2 seats)The Communist Party of India announced support to Vijay, but described it as “conditional support” aimed at ensuring “stable, secular and democratic governance” in Tamil Nadu.CPI state secretary M Veerapandian said the decision was taken to respect the people’s mandate and prevent political instability or President’s Rule in the state. The party clarified it would support the government from outside and would not seek cabinet positions.CPI(M) offers unconditional outside support (2 seats)The Communist Party of India (Marxist) has formally announced support to TVK for government formation and stressed that it would remain outside the cabinet.CPI(M) state secretary P Shanmugam said the Left parties intervened to avoid prolonged uncertainty and to stop what he described as a possible “backdoor entry” of the BJP into Tamil Nadu politics.The Marxist party also maintained that it would continue its ideological alignment with the DMK on issues related to state rights and federalism. IUML says yes, then backs out. Then comes back in (2 seats)The Indian Union Muslim League added to the confusion surrounding government formation after initially signalling support for Vijay’s government formation bid before later publicly distancing itself from TVK.Earlier on Friday, IUML statements suggesting that its two MLAs would support “initiatives by the Governor towards the government formation” were interpreted as indirect backing for Vijay. Some Left leaders also claimed that IUML had submitted letters of support to help TVK reach the majority mark.However, later in the day, IUML leader AM Shahjahan firmly denied extending support to TVK and dismissed reports of any support letter as “rumours”.“We did not support anybody. We did not give any letter to anybody. All these are rumours. We are continuing in the alliance under the leadership of DMK,” Shahjahan told reporters.The party, though, took another U-turn on Saturday evening just before Vijay's meeting with the Governor and said that they would back his government. AMMK backs AIADMK, accuses TVK of forgery (1 seat)The sharpest opposition to Vijay's efforts came from the Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazagam led by TTV Dhinakaran.Dhinakaran formally wrote to the Governor backing Edappadi K Palaniswami as chief minister and urged that the AIADMK be invited to form the government.He also accused TVK supporters of circulating a “forged” letter claiming AMMK’s support for Vijay and described it as “horse-trading” and a “mockery of democracy”.AMMK's lone MLA staying with the NDA bloc dealt another setback to Vijay’s numbers.DMK and AIADMK stay away amid speculationThe two traditional Dravidian rivals — Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam — have not backed Vijay.Speculation over a possible DMK-AIADMK understanding briefly intensified amid the hung verdict, but leaders from both camps privately dismissed the idea as politically unsustainable.The DMK, which won 59 seats, and the AIADMK, which secured 47, have instead watched the post-poll negotiations unfold from the sidelines while trying to protect their respective alliances.Governor yet to make formal announcementThe prolonged uncertainty had prompted Governor Rajendra Arlekar to withhold an invitation to Vijay despite the TVK chief meeting him three times in three days earlier this week. Raj Bhavan sources had indicated that the Governor wanted written proof of support from enough MLAs before allowing Vijay to form the government.With the VCK now formally backing TVK and Vijay’s tally rising to 120, the uncertainty surrounding government formation appears to have ended. Vijay is expected to shortly meet the Governor once again to formally stake claim to form the government, barely an hour after securing the support required to cross the majority mark.End of Tamil Nadu’s 62-year political duopoly?If invited to form the government and sworn in as chief minister, C Joseph Vijay will become the first leader outside the DMK-AIADMK formations to head the Tamil Nadu government since 1967.TVK’s rise has shattered the state’s decades-old Dravidian duopoly and dramatically altered Tamil Nadu’s political landscape in the party’s very first Assembly election.