As Trump and Xi meet in Beijing, the biggest 'win' may be the summit itself

As U.S. Chairman Donald ruff heads to peiping for a extremely awaited(p) summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, expectations around the visit between the leaders of the world's two largest economies are largely tempered. 

Trump's arrival Wednesday for the two-day trip will mark the first time a U.S. President has set foot on Chinese soil in nearly a decade, the last time in 2017 during his first term. 

But the welcome ceremony at Beijing's Great Hall of the People this week will be decidedly different, even if he's met with a fraction of the extravagant pomp and pageantry he was once greeted with. 

The potential deals that could result from this latest meeting — and the hopes of a broader agreement — are dampened by distractions over the war in the Middle East, decades of mistrust and competition and the belief by some observers that Xi has the upper hand.

From the Oval Office Monday, Trump said he expected the discussions to be "a little bit" about energy, "and about the very beautiful country of Iran."

Granted, the timing is awkward, with the Chinese hosting the U.S. President as he's both attacking and blockading Iran, one of their strategic partners.

The visit, originally set to begin March 31, was postponed by six weeks as a result of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, the fallout of which Trump is struggling to manage. It's expected he'll ask Xi to play a bigger role in influencing Iran to bring the conflict to an end.

Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged China to "join us in his international operation" to open the Strait of Hormuz. 

What is China's endgame for the war in Iran? | About That

While it might behoove Beijing to do so considering it's a major buyer of Iranian oil (despite having a stockpile, which makes the current disruption manageable), China has also shown it does not want to get actively involved, and would rather do the convincing behind closed doors. 

"There's a no-alliance, no-interventionist approach from the Chinese government," said Dan Wang, the Singapore-based China director of consultancy Eurasia Group. 

This was apparent as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing last week.

While Wang called on Iran to reopen the strait, he credited it as a push from the "international community" instead of the U.S. And stated China supported a "peace and security framework by regional countries."

Despite the war in the Middle East looming over this week's trip, the bilateral relationship between the U.S. And China has to be a focus and Trump can't simply return stateside empty-handed, even though the relationship is complicated and mired in mistrust. 

"[Trump] wants to keep the optics of momentum," said Craig Singleton, senior director of the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think-tank. "He wants to keep the notion of a functioning trade truce."

The trade war between the two countries dates back almost a decade to Trump's first term, through the Biden presidency when the administration added new tariffs to sectors like electric vehicles (with Canada following suit), and escalated last year, when U.S. Surtaxes reached 145 per cent on some Chinese imports. A truce was struck in October 2025 when Trump and Xi met in South Korea. 

Instead of a broader agreement, China could address the trade deficit through more piecemeal deals on specific sectors, like agriculture.

For example, China has traditionally purchased more than half of all U.S. Soybeans, but stopped abruptly for six months in 2025 as the trade war escalated. To satisfy farmers, a victory for Trump could involve China buying more.

How China uses its buying power as a trade war weapon | About That

Also notable — more than a dozen tech and business leaders are travelling with the U.S. President including Apple CEO Tim Cook, Trump's sometimes ally and sometimes nemesis Elon Musk and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, signalling the Chinese could buy more airplanes, along with energy products like oil and natural gas.

"Trump's got to make it look like he's got some victories coming back from a meeting with Xi," said Greg Chin, associate professor of political science at York University. "China knows how to do this type of statecraft."

As Trump appears to focus on building up American capacity in rare earth minerals through increasing domestic mining and agreements with other countries like Japan and Australia, it's worth watching how China may use its leverage heading into these talks, considering it has been unabashed in using sweeping export controls over rare earth minerals, used in everything from smartphones to fighter jets. 

It has the supply chain locked down, a near-monolopy on processing, and has shown it isn't afraid to use it in retaliation to U.S. Tariffs. 

What would be considered a victory for China is slightly more inscrutable, though Wang with Eurasia Group says Beijing will want further easing of restrictions on sales of advanced AI chips and semiconductors as the two countries compete intensely for AI dominance. 

Trump also alluded to discussing the issue of Taiwan, musing he expects Xi to "bring up Taiwan … more than I will."

Growing fear China will use Taiwan to bargain with U.S.

China has long been seeking a weakened U.S. Stance on Taiwanese independence, with Xi asking then-president Joe Biden in 2024 to change the official position from "does not support" to "oppose."

China will be looking to push Trump to do the same, which would raise questions about whether Washington would come to Taiwan's defence, especially considering the $11 billion weapons package it announced for the island late last year.

Despite all the talk of Taiwan leading up to the summit, York University's Chin considers the topic "overhyped," saying he does not believe China would take the island by military force.

"[China] sees people in Taiwan as Chinese," Chin said. "You don't want to bomb people by force and force reunification. It makes no sense."

At the very least, the measure of a successful summit may be simpler than many imagine.

For Yun Sun, senior fellow and director of the China Program at Washington think-tank the Stimson Center, the meeting itself is already "a pretty major breakthrough." 

"It's already demonstrating that both sides have the willingness to improve their relationship, to stabilize the relationship," she said. 

Stability in the bilateral relationship shouldn't be understated, since both countries need room to deal with domestic issues, and considering any kind of friction between the U.S. And China has  global repercussions.

---

---