Keeping up with UP: After Bengal, Bihar euphoria, BJP out to keep the momentum going in seven states

AFter winning in ii electorally toughened states -- w Bengal and Bihar -- the Bharatiya Janata company (BJP) is preparing for of import assembly polls next year.Assembly elections are scheduled in Punjab, where the BJP is still a fledgling party and Uttar Pradesh (UP), where it will be seeking a third consecutive term under chief minister Yogi Adityanath.In all, seven states will go to the polls next year: Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Manipur, Uttarakhand and Gujarat. Of these, the BJP rules five states, while Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) govern one each.First, UP, the most populous state, sends key national leaders to the Lok Sabha; the current UP LS members list includes Prime Minister Narendra Modi, defence minister Rajnath Singh, and Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi.Their slogan ‘Jai Sri Ram’ emanated from the land where the three prime Hindu religious shrines - Ayodhya, Mathura, and Kashi—exist. Riding high on the slogan, the saffron brigade won the Lok Sabha polls in 2014 and 2019 and the UP assembly elections in 2017 and 2022. The momentum was disturbed in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections when their tally dipped.The BJP counteracted the 2024 Lok Sabha electoral upsets with spectacular wins in Bihar and West Bengal. However, the battle in UP and Punjab won’t be easy as both states have their own complexities.The Opposition cannot simply take refuge in controversies over the management or the alleged manipulation of the polls — from SIR (the alleged deletion of genuine voters during special intensive revision) to the counting of votes—as Trinamool Congress (TMC) president Mamata Banerjee had also underestimated the anti-incumbency against her government, in addition to the consolidation of the Hindutva vote.The aftershocks of Banerjee’s defeat were felt in UP. Now, when the opposition should be preparing to win forthcoming elections, they are discussing reconciliation or reconstruction of the opposition bloc. Apparently, the Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav will have to fight a lonely battle as Banerjee may get busy with legal battles while DMK leader and former Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin is sulking over the Congress ditching his party.The contentious issue is the uncomfortable relationship between the Congress and its partners, many of whom are splinter groups like the TMC. A clash of vote banks more than ideology, also plagues them. For instance, both the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) took away the traditional vote banks of a declining Congress and now the grand old party’s revival could come at their expense. The BJP remains unaffected.The question is whether the Congress and AAP will join hands in Punjab or if the bonhomie displayed by Gandhi and Yadav will trickle down to the rank and file. Despite the BSP snubs, a section of Congress leaders still courts the Mayawati-led party.In simple words, the Opposition has to decide whether it will first fight the BJP and then come up with respective revival plans in the states or fight one another, much to the advantage of the BJP.Political experts believe that weakening regional parties was a prerequisite for the country’s much-discussed two-pole politics. But at whose expense? Can a weak TMC pave the way for the Congress’s revival in West Bengal? Perhaps not. Can the Congress fight the BJP alone in Uttar Pradesh or can it trust the BSP?On the other hand, realising the peculiarities of both states, BJP leader Amit Shah has not only deployed his best minds to oversee the polls but is also said to be ready with blueprints for them.Modi himself had kickstarted the election campaign from his Lok Sabha constituency Varanasi much before the West Bengal elections were even complete. The message to the cadre was clear: there is no time to rest.In quick succession, the BJP expanded the state cabinet to correct its caste calculus, even as the Congress, an ally of the main challenger, the SP, was caught in a dilemma over the Kerala CM.Also Read:Keeping up with UP: Will women help BJP retain powerWhat’s the BJP’s strategy and advantagesThe BJP has a well-oiled party machinery with its ‘soldiers’ spread across the state. The incumbent also has a galaxy of articulate leaders and the necessary resources, including funds.The strategy apparently is: focus on “aadhi aabadi” (women): They form 50% of the vote bank and have largely supported the BJP, cutting across caste lines, for multiple reasons, including welfare schemes, security, and religious inclinations. The Lok Sabha passed the 33% reservation for women in 2023 but voted against the 2026 bill when it was combined with delimitation.Correcting the caste calculus: Since Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA formula actually dented the BJP in 2024, the party high command inducted ministers belonging to Dalit and OBC castes and will possibly reward them with more tickets. However, they will have to pacify the Brahmin voters.Target them: Label the Opposition as “anti-Hindu and pro-Muslim” as the society is divided along both communal and caste lines.Encourage a multi-cornered contest: Divide the anti-BJP votes.Counter anti-incumbency: Use the TINA (there is no alternative) factor to drive home the advantage.Social media outreach: Outmatch the opposition in the field and on social media. Akhilesh Yadav has already spoken about the fund crunch.Governance: Emphasise governance by the double-engine government, play on the Modi-Yogi brand.Spring a surprise: Offer last-minute dole or make announcements.Break the Opposition parties: The BJP is on a winning spree, and the morale of its cadres is upbeat. Still, the party fights every election -- in safe or tough zones -- as a war. The party works round the year, but steps up its activity during polls.Also Read:Keeping up with UP | How Bengal poll results will impact the battle for UPThe West Bengal results have toughened the battle for the SP. Yadav is, of course, back on his toes, perhaps strategising his plan for the 2027 polls.Yadav is banking on a young brigade he has been building. They are all educated, articulate and may soon take to the roads.While the 2024 results had boosted confidence, 2026 could have dampened spirits. Perhaps, Yadav will have to use the 2022 assembly polls, instead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, as the base to prepare for 2027. Though the party’s graph has been rising, West Bengal and Bihar have put brakes on the 2024 momentum.In Punjab, the BJP boosted its strength by inducting key leaders from the AAP, including seven of their nine Rajya Sabha members. The AAP government is also under pressure. As of now, the BJP is strengthening its position in the state where the Congress is much healthier than in UP. But its old ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal, continues to remain in a shambles.