‘Hike cycle is unlikely to end soon’: Experts as petrol, diesel prices increased for third time in 10 days

STate-run oil color companies raised petrol and rudolf diesel prices by nearly ₹1 per litre to each one on sat — the thirdly increase in eight days — taking the cumulative revision to just under ₹5 per litre since May 15, even as international crude has eased from its peak. Concurrently, Indraprastha Gas Ltd raised CNG rates by ₹1 per kg, its third increase since May 15, taking the total CNG hike to ₹4 per kg in under 10 days.Industry executives and sector analysts say the incremental hike cycle is unlikely to end soon. Despite three revisions, OMCs are estimated to still be losing ₹8–10 per litre on petrol and diesel. The trajectory of under-recoveries illustrates the partial nature of each correction: daily losses across the three companies stood at ₹1,000 crore before the first hike on May 15, fell to ₹750 crore after the second on May 19, and are now estimated to have dropped below ₹500 crore after Saturday’s revision. A fourth hike is expected unless Brent stabilises below $100 a barrel — and, in the best-case scenario analysts cite, closer to $70.Benchmark Brent closed at $103.54 on Friday, up 0.9% on the day but down from the $108-plus levels seen at the time of the first May 15 hike — a decline that makes the continued corrections harder to defend politically. Since the conflict broke out on February 28, Brent has risen roughly 42% from $72.87. The rupee gained for a second consecutive session on Friday, closing at ₹95.60 per dollar, helped by softening crude and anticipation of monetary policy intervention.Also Read | Panic buying leads to increase in petrol-diesel sale by 20% in Maharashtra, CM orders curbs to prevent hoardingThe hike comes against a striking financial backdrop. Despite absorbing the full impact of the West Asia conflict in the January-March 2026 quarter (the crisis began on March1), the three OMCs posted a combined net profit of ₹19,470 crore — a 40.74% rise over the same period last year.For the full year 2025–26, their combined net profit surged 130% to ₹77,280.65 crore, from ₹33,601.57 crore in 2024–25, on the back of stable crude prices and healthy refining margins for much of the year before the conflict erupted. IOC and HPCL posted strong quarterly profits; BPCL’s remained flat. The increases follow the same incremental pattern as April 2022, when pump prices rose by roughly ₹9 per litre in daily 80 paise steps in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That revision took just over a week. The current cycle has moved at a comparable pace, though the under-recovery gap is larger and the crude price environment remains more volatile.Petrol in Delhi now stands at ₹99.51 per litre — up 87 paise — and diesel at ₹92.49, up 91 paise. Across metros, petrol has risen to ₹110.64 in Kolkata (up 94 paise), ₹108.49 in Mumbai (up 90 paise), and ₹105.31 in Chennai (up 82 paise). Diesel is ₹97.02 in Kolkata, ₹95.02 in Mumbai, and ₹96.98 in Chennai, with increases of 95, 94, and 87 paise respectively.CNG in Delhi is now ₹81.09 per kg; IGL, promoted by BPCL and Gail India, also retails across cities in Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Variations in local levies account for city-to-city differences.The Congress demanded the government absorb the fuel price increases rather than pass them on to consumers, arguing that citizens had been denied the benefit of low crude prices over the past decade and could not now be asked to bear the cost of elevated ones. “During the good times, if you did not pass on the benefit to people, why are you burdening the people of India at a time like this, when we cannot afford to pay that extra amount?” said national spokesperson Rajeev Gowda at a press conference at the party’s headquarters in New Delhi.Gowda accused the government of drawing “excessive revenue” from citizens through surcharges and taxes on petrol and diesel over 12 years of low crude prices — revenue that he said was never returned to consumers in the form of lower fertiliser or food costs. “In the last 12 years, have the people of India benefited in any way from the low oil prices that the Modi government has benefited from?” he asked. The cumulative ₹5 per litre increase over a week, he said, amounted to “striking a blow” at ordinary people.