Why India may not be done with petrol, diesel price hikes yet | Explained

INdia's fire prices feature at present been raised quatern times in to a lesser extent than two weeks, and experts say another hike cannot be ruled out as the US-Iran war continues to disrupt global energy supplies and keep crude oil markets volatile.State-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) on Monday ₹2.61 per litre">increased petrol prices by ₹2.61 per litre and diesel by ₹2.71 per litre, taking cumulative hikes since May 15 to about ₹7.35 and ₹7.53 per litre respectively.In Delhi, petrol is now retailing at ₹102.12 per litre and diesel at ₹95.20 — the first time in four years that petrol prices in the national capital have crossed the ₹100 mark.Track Live Updates on Petrol, Diesel price hikes across IndiaThe hikes come amid continuing tensions in West Asia following the US-Iran conflict that erupted in late February. A major reason behind soaring oil prices has been the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.Why the Strait of Hormuz matters to India’s fuel pricesThe sharp rise in petrol and diesel prices in India is closely linked to the disruption of oil movement through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most crucial energy shipping routes. Nearly one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, making it vital for countries heavily dependent on imported energy, including India.Following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict in West Asia, commercial movement through the strait has been severely disrupted, triggering fears of supply shortages across global markets.The uncertainty pushed Brent crude prices sharply higher, increasing costs for Indian state-run oil companies that import most of the country’s crude requirements. Since India imports over 85% of its crude oil needs, any disruption in global supplies or spike in international prices directly impacts domestic fuel rates.Why experts believe more hikes may followIndustry executives and energy analysts say the current round of revisions may not be over yet.According to sector experts quoted by Reuters, state-run retailers are still trying to recover current revenue losses as well as past “under-recoveries” accumulated while they held prices steady despite rising crude costs during the early phase of the war and assembly election season.Brent crude had jumped from about $72.87 per barrel on February 27 to nearly $120 in March after the conflict escalated sharply. Though prices have eased recently and briefly slipped below $100 amid hopes of diplomacy, analysts say the current crude environment remains expensive enough to keep pressure on Indian fuel retailers. Experts tracking OMC finances estimate that daily losses, once pegged at nearly ₹1,000 crore collectively, have fallen substantially after repeated hikes but have not disappeared entirely. Several analysts told Reuters that they believe a fifth increase is possible unless Brent stabilises well below $100 per barrel for a sustained period.Govt had earlier hinted at difficult decisionsThe Centre had already indicated earlier this month that fuel price corrections could become unavoidable.Petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri had said that “at some stage the government has to take a view” on petroleum pricing amid severe global supply disruptions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi too had urged citizens to conserve fuel and foreign exchange by adopting measures such as carpooling, greater use of public transport and avoiding unnecessary expenditure. The messaging was widely viewed as preparation for prolonged economic and energy uncertainty.Banker Uday Kotak had also cautioned that India must prepare for a “much more complex problem” linked to geopolitical instability and energy security.US-Iran peace talks raise hopes, but Hormuz blockade remainsRecent diplomatic developments have slightly cooled global oil prices, with reports suggesting ongoing backchannel talks between Washington and Tehran over a possible ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.US officials have indicated that progress is being made toward a broader agreement involving regional de-escalation and restoration of energy flows. Former US President Donald Trump has claimed a framework is “largely negotiated”, though Iranian officials have publicly downplayed some of the claims.However, the US has also reportedly maintained that the effective blockade and restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz will continue until a formal agreement is reached. That has fuelled expectations that while the route could reopen after a successful deal, energy supplies will likely remain constrained until negotiations are fully concluded.For now, commercial movement through the strait remains heavily disrupted, with security risks, insurance concerns and naval tensions continuing to affect oil shipments. Experts warn that even after a diplomatic breakthrough, normal operations may take time to resume fully.OMC profits trigger debateThe repeated hikes have also sparked criticism because the three state-run fuel retailers - Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum - recently reported strong profits.Together, the companies posted combined net profits of over ₹77,000 crore in 2025-26, driven by stable crude prices and strong refining margins for much of the year before the conflict intensified.Still, company executives maintain that current retail prices do not fully account for the sharp rise in global crude and transportation costs triggered by the West Asia crisis.For consumers, the immediate concern remains whether the fragile US-Iran negotiations succeed quickly enough to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and cool crude prices — or whether prolonged uncertainty pushes India toward yet another round of fuel price hikes.