Keeping up with UP: Will Samajwadi Party keep 2024 momentum in 2027 poll

“Direct me to mahabharatum, in the Kurukshetra,” Samajwadi company (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav said at a media conclave when asked if he had a pick to move around back in time, where it would be, as he faces a fierce fight against the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2027 assembly elections. The BJP seeks to retain power in Uttar Pradesh and maintain its winning streak after the electoral setback in the 2024 national polls.The SP registered its best performance, bagging 37 of 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, and the Congress increased its count to six seats from one in 2024. The BJP’s seats in the state fell from 62 in 2019 to 33, as the party’s overall tally dropped below the majority mark in Parliament.Yadav’s reference to the Mahabharata reflected the readiness needed for the 2027 challenge, which will be crucial for the future of regional parties and SP, which was formed 25 years ago. In recent years, the BJP has decimated regional parties such as the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) (Bihar), Trinamool Congress (West Bengal), Jannayak Janata Party (Haryana), and Biju Janata Dal (Odisha). Ally Janata Dal (United) handed over the chief minister’s post to the BJP in Bihar, the only northern state where the latter had not led a government until this year.Will the BJP remove the last hurdle in the north by decimating SP? Uttar Pradesh has been the BJP’s stronghold, where the movement to build the Ram Temple in Ayodhya led to its national rise. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and chief minister Yogi Adityanath have successfully used their Hindutva model in Uttar Pradesh.The BJP is the country’s biggest political force, flush with funds, and with a committed cadre in a polarised state, where Muslim bashing works.The SP is a regional force and the third-largest party in parliament, but it is short on funds. It also has a committed cadre. Yadav has exhorted SP workers to increase five votes at every booth to win the 2027 election. The calculation is based on poll results data. Despite electoral setbacks since 2014, SP has increased its vote share since 2017.In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the SP-Congress alliance was ahead in 224 of 403 assembly segments. The BJP polled 38.30 million votes and SP 38.16 million. In the 2022 assembly polls, the BJP and SP polled 41.3 and 32.1% votes. The victory margin sharply came down from 8.5 million in 2022 to a few hundred thousand in 2024.How did this happen? The SP expanded its vote bank of Muslims and Yadavs by adding Kurmi, Pal, and Dalits to build PDA (acronym for Pichra or backward, Dalit, and Alpasanghyak or minority). SP leadership later described the “A” in PDA as Adhi Abadi (women).After the 2024 polls, SP intensified its PDA campaign, realising they would not get support from upper castes—Brahmins and Banias—though disgruntled, but would remain with the BJP. Rajputs would never desert Adityanath.The PDA is 80% of the total population. But Brahmins are opinion makers. Rajputs have muscle power, and Banias have money. The upper castes influence elections in villages, and their alienation will disadvantage the SP.The mood in the SP camp is upbeat even after a determined BJP won the toughest state of West Bengal. The argument is that Uttar Pradesh is different and there is an alternative to the BJP that works in SP’s favour. Akhilesh Yadav described the 2027 election as a contest between the BJP and PDA. His message to the booth-level workers is: “BJP’s victory march started from Uttar Pradesh, their political downfall will also start from here.”The stage is set for a fierce direct fight between the BJP and SP. It is an advantage for the BJP, but a caste-driven election could help the SP, in addition to frustration among some sections, such as farmers and youth. The BJP has painted SP as anti-Hindu, building a narrative around communal issues and alleged lawlessness during its rule.Both parties are making corrections in their caste calculations and image-building. Akhilesh Yadav is injecting soft Hindutva into his PDA formula with the building of Kedareshwar Temple in Etawah, which is likely to be inaugurated before the polls. Adityanath has inducted backward and Brahmin ministers. This will also reflect in organisational changes.Many believe the 2024 Lok Sabha polls were an aberration, but SP’s confidence stems from a consistent focus on PDA, highlighting issues such as quota.Akhilesh Yadav has maintained that their alliance with the Congress will continue and winnability will be its guiding principle. A section of Congress leaders has advocated an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). If they succeed, the BJP will be in a win-win position as Muslims and Dalit votes will divide sharply, weakening SP, BSP, and Congress. BSP chief Mayawati has been open to alliances depending on the situation.In 2024, BSP was inactive. Mayawati has held several organisational meetings and two public rallies targeting the SP ahead of the 2027 elections. Smaller parties like Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) will cut into BSP votes, and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen will harm the SP. Other small parties will divide Other Backward Class votes in their respective regions to the BJP’s advantage. The BJP cannot afford to lose the state, while SP needs to win for its political relevance.