Netanyahu's future uncertain as Israel starts to prepare for national election

Netanyahu's time to come is unsure, but experts won't number him come out

While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been focussed on "total victory" for Israel since the Hamas-led attack on the country on Oct. 7, 2023, his own victory in a coming national election is far from certain.

This past week, the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, unanimously approved a bill to begin dissolving in preparation for the election that has to be held by the end of October.

For some voters, Israel's longest-serving prime minister could be be both the key figure and issue when the election is held.

"The policies of this government were the most divisive that we've ever seen really in Israeli history," said pollster and political commentator Dahlia Scheindlin, a fellow at the Century Foundation, a Tel Aviv-based think-tank.

To understand the national mood, she points back to Oct. 7 and Israel’s failure to stop the attacks, where nearly 1,200 people were killed and about another 250 kidnapped, according to Israeli tallies.

After Oct. 7, Netanyahu promised "total victory" over Hamas in Gaza. It hasn’t happened.

The Gaza Health Ministry says more than 70,000 Palestinian civilians have been killed, Hamas is still armed and Israeli forces are still entrenched. This month, Netanyahu said Israel now controls more than 60 per cent of the enclave.

Netanyahu claims Gaza City takeover is fastest way to end war

Domestic issues, such as Israelis' anger over Oct. 7, concessions Netanyahu has made to far-right factions of his coalition, changes to democratic and judicial institutions and his ongoing criminal trial on corruption charges, have him polling consistently below 50 per cent, said Scheindlin.

"For the people who disliked him, already were against him, yes, October 7th is making that even worse," she said.

"His government, if the elections were held today, most likely, based on the overwhelming majority of polls, could not form a coalition with the current parties."

Netanyahu and his leadership have long garnered both support and criticism.

Supporters see him as a strong leader, unafraid to use force to reshape the Middle East in Israel’s favour.  

Critics are quick to point to his corruption trial and the failure of the Netanyahu government to stop Oct 7.

The strikes on Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon are galvanizing supporters.

"What matters is how he takes care of us, the citizens," said Israel Sabag, who runs a small spice shop in a busy Jerusalem market.

"I don't really think he's doing bad stuff. He is just protecting us. When there is a need for a war, he chooses war, he isn’t afraid of war."

Just outside Sabag’s shop, Idan Saidov and her husband agree.

"Yes, finish it," she said of the U.S. And Israel war against Iran.

"If we don’t have Bibi, we are nothing."

Such feelings aren’t uncommon in Israel, Scheindlin says, and they should be giving Netanyahu a bump.

"People like the image of Israel taking back the initiative, showing strength in the Middle East." 

But with the outcome of the war uncertain, and U.S. President Donald Trump looking more interested in a negotiated end to the conflict with Iran, many Israelis are watching nervously.

First elected prime minister in 1996, Netanyahu has led Israel on and off for more than 18 years. He’s come back from defeat twice. 

But to some, Netanyahu is well beyond his best before date.

"It’s been too long," Lior Nirsky said as she waited at a Tel Aviv bus stop.

Netanyahu has been prime minister most of her life, and she says she’s angry about Oct. 7. 

"I think the biggest disappointment is not taking responsibility for everything that happened." 

Netanyahu's future is uncertain, but experts won't count him out

Political opponents are aligning to build upon that frustration and fatigue.

Two former prime ministers — Yair Lapid, currently Israel’s opposition leader, and Naftali Bennett — are forming a new party called Together. Bennett will lead it into the next election.

The party endorses many of the same nationalist policies as Netanyahu’s Likud party, including acceleration of settlements in the occupied West Bank, for which Israel has faced global condemnation.  

Recent polling shows the new party is competitive with Netanyahu’s Likud party.

At a rally in Tel Aviv, party organizer Lee Levinger said she believes many in Israel want the country to keep heading down the nationalist path it is on but are tired of the division and the baggage that has come to follow Netanyahu, including his criminal trials.

"It's not serving us, not as a country, not as a nation."

Last November, Netanayu began seeking a pardon on his criminal charges from Israel's president. Negotiations are ongoing, in what is proving to be a long and controversial legal process.

It’s unclear what impact that may have on Netanyahu’s prospects in the election, or what a resumption of fighting against Iran could mean.

After watching Israeli politics for a long time, Scheindlin has come to learn one thing about Netanyahu.

 "I wouldn't bet against him," she said.

Senior reporter

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