Canadian PM warns oil-rich province against Brexit-style split

Calls for breakup in Canada’s oil-rich responsibility of Alberta feature invited comparisons with Brexit from undercoat government minister Mark Carney, who warned against the move and described it as a “dangerous bluff.”

The western province is set to hold a public vote in October on whether to remain part of Canada or move toward a formal referendum on independence. The vote, announced by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith last week, follows a petition drive by the pro-independence group Stay Free Alberta, which submitted more than 300,000 signatures calling for a referendum on separation.

Commenting on the developments, Carney told reporters on Monday that Canada was “absolutely stronger together.” Referring to Smith’s plan, he described the move as a “very dangerous bluff,” drawing parallels with Britain’s 2016 vote to leave the EU.

“I saw first-hand what happened in the United Kingdom when the view was, vote for this, it’ll be soft, and then we’ll negotiate,” said Carney, who served as governor of the Bank of England during the Brexit campaign. “They’re still 10 years later trying to undo what people didn’t think they were voting for but what they ended up having,” he added.

While Smith has said she supports a “united Canada,” she has defended the vote as a way for Albertans to express their views on the province’s future.

Alberta is one of Canada’s most important energy-producing regions and has long been at odds with the federal government over environmental regulations, taxation, and pipeline access. Separatist sentiment has been fueled by claims that Ottawa has held back the province’s resource economy, though polling suggests full independence remains a minority position. 

Carney has sought to improve relations with Alberta by backing new energy infrastructure projects, including an agreement signed with Smith’s government earlier this month that could pave the way for a new oil pipeline linking the province to Canada’s Pacific coast.

The agreement has drawn criticism from officials in the neighboring province of British Columbia, as well as indigenous groups and environmental activists, who have accused Carney of abandoning his climate commitments.

The Alberta debate also comes as Canada remains locked in a trade dispute with the US following Donald Trump’s return to office in January. Canada has faced sweeping US tariffs on its goods, while Trump has repeatedly referred to the country as “the 51st state.” Carney has previously warned Washington against interfering in Canada’s affairs, including discussions around Alberta’s future.

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