How war, tariffs and weather 'conspired' to make your tomatoes cost more

Did ruff occupy love apple?

A meme called " ruff occupy egg" was circling around this time last year as U.S. And Canadian consumers grappled with sky-high egg prices and blamed the U.S. President. But now, as The Associated Press points out, there's a new symbol of America's affordability crisis: the tomato.

In the U.S., tomato prices are up about 40 per cent over a year ago, according to the latest Consumer Price Index, dwarfing increases for other groceries. 

Canada isn't faring much better, with tomato prices up 21 per cent in April compared to a year earlier — also the highest year-over-year price increase for any grocery item measured in the Consumer Price Index, beating coffee and beef.

And once again, experts are pointing to Trump's policies for the price surge, alongside crop yields and other issues. Specifically, U.S. Analysts are blaming the pillars of his second-term policies: the Iran war and tariffs.

It's "a perfect storm of trade policy, extreme weather and Mideast policy," Usha Haley, a Wichita State University economist in Kansas, told The Associated Press.

In Canada, consumers are posting about the high price of tomatoes on social media and some businesses are wondering if they can afford to keep tomatoes on the menu.

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The Associated Press reports that outraged U.S. Shoppers have pulled out their phones in the produce aisle, shooting videos lamenting costs they say have quadrupled, with some vowing to plant a garden to avoid prices of up to $8 US per pound.

In Canada, consumers and business owners coast to coast have also lamented the price of tomatoes, which, according to the most recent retail price data were an average $6.10 per kilogram in March, up a dollar from a year earlier.

"$5 for a single tomato! I can barely believe my eyes," Toronto content creator Sonduren Fanarredha posted on Instagram at the end of April.

"Are we supposed to survive this?" posted a small business owner in a Victoria, B.C., subreddit in April, alongside a photo of Roma tomatoes at a wholesale store selling for $10.67 per kilogram.

His restaurant, the Newfoundland Embassy, recently announced on social media that it would no longer be using tomatoes "until the prices come back down to being somewhat reasonable," pointing out 10 pounds of tomatoes previously cost $30 but have since ballooned to $68.

For the time being, when people order dishes like a turkey club, nachos and quesadillas, they will no longer come with tomatoes, Hickey said.

So why are prices in Canada so high?

Trade issues, war and weather "all conspired together," explained Michael von Massow, a food agriculture professor at Ontario's University of Guelph.

In terms of climate, a freeze in Florida and rain in Mexico reduced yields, and most of Canada's winter and spring tomatoes come from those regions, von Massow said.

And while the U.S. Tariffs on Mexican tomatoes didn't directly affect Canadian prices, industry news site The Packer explains that Mexican growers reduced their plantings as a result, which further squeezed supply.

In addition, von Massow said Canada's own greenhouse yields were lower than usual due to a dark winter that slowed growing.

"At a time when we probably wanted more tomatoes from Mexico, we actually got fewer."

Finally, higher diesel and fertilizer costs are feeding through the supply chain as a result of the war in Iran, von Massow said.

Using May 21 data collected via his food analytics lab, Charlebois said the highest mean prices for tomatoes sold in Canadian grocery stores (excluding sales and deals) are in St. John's, at $7.04 per kilogram.

This was followed by tomato prices in Ottawa ($6.94/kg), Moncton ($6.71/kg), Halifax ($6.57/kg) and Toronto ($6.55/kg). In Toronto on Friday, beefsteak tomatoes at Loblaws cost $8.80/kg, tomatoes on the vine were also $8.80/kg and Roma tomatoes cost $7.72/kg, according to the Loblaws website.

But, as with most produce, tomato prices are cyclical, and von Massow said he expects to see prices come back down during our own harvest season in late summer.

"And this year they should probably go down more than they usually do because they've gone up more than they usually do."

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Senior Writer & Editor

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