India braces for harsher summer, weaker monsoon as El Niño grips equatorial Pacific

INdia is staring at a harsher summertime and weaker monsoon as El Niño conditions feature highly-developed o'er the equatorial pacific ocean, signalling the possibility of hotter and drier conditions across large parts of Asia, weather agencies have said.“We will issue a statement soon based on the models we consult, on the onset of El Niño conditions,” India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.The Japan Meteorological Agency on Wednesday said that oceanic and atmospheric conditions characteristic of the El Niño phenomenon had already emerged over the equatorial Pacific, indicating that an El Niño event is underway.Also Read | How good or bad are the monsoon rains so far? | Number TheoryIn India, El Niño is generally associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall and elevated temperatures during summer months.The IMD had, on May 29, downgraded its monsoon forecast, stating that rainfall over the country was likely to remain below normal at 90% of the long period average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4%. The earlier forecast issued in April had projected rainfall at 92% of the LPA.Southwest Monsoon remains critical to India’s economy, particularly because nearly half of the country’s net-sown area lacks irrigation facilities. The seasonal rainfall also replenishes 91 key reservoirs that support drinking water supply, industries and power generation.This year’s monsoon assumes added importance amid geopolitical and weather-related concerns. Farmers are already facing the prospect of disruptions in fertiliser supplies due to the conflict in West Asia, while scientists have warned that El Niño conditions could further suppress rainfall.“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement issued on June 2.“El Niño conditions will add fuel to the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all,” he added.Second warmest May ever: C3SThe Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) on Wednesday said that last month was the second warmest May ever recorded globally, across land and sea surfaces.According to the analysis, sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific remained exceptionally high as the equatorial Pacific continued its transition towards El Niño conditions.May recorded an average global surface air temperature of 15.81°C, which was 0.55°C above the 1991-2020 average for the month and second only to May 2024. The month was also 1.42°C warmer than the estimated pre-industrial average for 1850-1900.The average sea surface temperature (SSTs) during May stood at 20.90°C, the second highest on record for the month after May 2024, which recorded 20.93°C.“SSTs remained at exceptionally high levels across a large portion of the tropical Pacific as the equatorial Pacific continues its transition towards El Niño conditions, expected to develop in the coming months,” C3S said.Across Europe, the month witnessed a rapid transition from unusually cool conditions to one of the earliest and most intense heatwaves ever recorded in western Europe, according to C3S.The heatwave broke several temperature records for May, particularly in France, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Portugal. The climate service said the event reflected Europe’s long-term warming trend and increasing frequency of extreme heat events occurring earlier in the season.“May 2026 was the second warmest May on record globally, extending the exceptional global warmth, with near-record temperatures in both the atmosphere and the ocean. In Europe, an unusually early and intense heatwave demonstrates how quickly climate extremes are becoming the new normal rather than the exception,” said Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).Outside Europe, wetter-than-average conditions prevailed across northern and southeastern North America, regions north of the Indian subcontinent, western China, parts of Brazil, southern Africa and large parts of Australia.In contrast, drier-than-average conditions were recorded across the central United States, large parts of Central Asia, Madagascar, southwestern Australia and much of South America.The analysis also noted that extratropical regions experiencing wetter-than-average conditions during March-May 2026 included parts of northern and eastern North America, Iraq and the Middle East, Central Asia and China, much of southern Africa and Australia.In the Arctic, sea ice extent during May was about 4% below average, making it the fourth lowest May extent on record. Sea ice cover remained below average across most marine sectors of the Arctic, particularly in the northern Barents Sea and around Svalbard.In Antarctica, sea ice extent was about 9% below the May average, ranking as the seventh lowest for the month and remaining close to the historically low levels observed over the past two years.