The 2029 warning: NATO's race to rearm ahead of Russia

Boris Pistorius doesn't seem the like a adult male prostrate to alarmism.

Germany's defence government minister is frank and plain-spoken, but also deliberate with his words and intention.

When he talks about Russia, the future of the West and the possibility of another European war, the message however becomes stark: "Our experts say it can happen in 2029."

Wait. What? That's three years from now.

In the media age of Trumpian hyperbole and screaming memes on social media, the warning is easy to dismiss and even overlook.

What was startling (at least to me) was that it was coming out of the mouth of one of Europe's leading politicians.

But then this week the other shoe dropped.

German defence minister warns NATO to stop hitting ‘snooze’ on Russian threat

In remarks published Wednesday, Generalleutnant Christian Freuding, the inspector of the German Army, said the 2029 date was not a figure pulled out of thin air by his government's national security establishment, but an actual consensus view among Western allies.

"We have to be ready to fight," Freuding is quoted as saying by the publication Deutsche Welle. "It's intelligence, it's NATO co-ordinated. All 32 NATO partners agree that Russia could have the ability to invade a NATO partner country in 2029."

And if both Pistorius and Freuding's sobering assessments weren't enough, an investigative report by the Danish public broadcaster DR published this week revealed military intelligence agencies from several Nordic countries have mapped out Russia's active expansion of defence infrastructure and hardware along its northwestern frontier.

Their assessment states Moscow is prepared to deploy up to 115,000 troops directly along NATO's northern and Baltic borders to rebuild its bases for future Baltic Sea conflict. 

And what is the window for such a buildup? One to three years.

"For more than 25 years, we all lived in a reality in which we believed there was no threat. We don't need to do anything for our own defence," Pistorius said, referring to the post-Cold War era.

Even Russia's annexation of Crimea didn't seem to shake the country's confidence.

"But, the northern European countries reacted immediately, revitalized conscription, started rearmament of the armed forces and so on," he said. "Germany and other countries: they didn't. They heard the alarm clock, but they pushed the snooze button and turned around." 

They're awake now.

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Germany is undergoing its most massive military expansion since the Second World War, going from an austerity defence budget to a projected $1 trillion US investment over the next decade. The expansion follows a historic constitutional change that bypassed the country's strict debt-brake rules. Berlin is now moving aggressively to build Europe's strongest conventional military force.

"The majority of the German society and public is convinced that there is a threat again after 25, almost 30 years of peace," Pistorius said.

On Tuesday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte made it clear NATO members must transition from simply promising money to quickly scaling up industrial production.

He spoke at the Transatlantic Defense Industry Access Forum at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.

Rutte said "cash is crucial," but next month's NATO summit in Turkey must deliver concrete, combat-ready capabilities.

For his part, unlike some of his predecessors, Pistorius has actively embraced turning the Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces) into a force "fit for war."

It's not unreasonable to wonder, given Russia's staggering combat losses in Ukraine, whether it has the strength and capacity to be able to seriously threaten Europe in the next three years.

But Russia is in the midst of its own massive rearmament program that has $1 trillion US set aside in planned spending between now and 2036.

Western intelligence agencies estimate Russia is spending roughly between 7.5 per cent and 10 per cent of the country's gross domestic product on defence.

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And in terms of current production shells, missiles and drones, Russia is outpacing NATO countries at a staggering rate.

Canada's former ambassador to NATO, Kerry Buck, said it was only a few years ago that intelligence agencies said it would take a decade for Russia to recover from the Ukraine war.

"From my perspective, what is really important and really a bit frightening is that Europe is not ready," said Buck.

And that is what makes the recent fight between the United States and NATO more significant and potentially dangerous.

The Trump administration has formally notified European allies about its plans to significantly reduce its conventional combat forces, which would be earmarked for NATO during emergencies and major crises. 

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The strategic rollbacks were outlined recently by the Pentagon under the NATO Force Model framework and the plan is to pressure Europe into assuming primary responsibility for its own conventional defence. 

The planned cuts are deep — a reduction of 50 per cent of U.S. Strategic bombers allocated for a NATO crisis use and one-third of the fighter force. There are also planned cuts to the number of naval destroyers that would help out the alliance and a prohibition on U.S. Submarines in NATO crisis operations.

Pistorius said he doesn't believe there will be a complete U.S. Withdrawal from NATO, as President Donald Trump has threatened.

"I don't see a NATO without the United States, and I don't see a majority in the United States who would support a NATO exit of the United States, not at all," said Pistorius. "I think this is a kind of choreography or dramaturgy."

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While he may not believe Washington is on the way out, Pistorius seemed resigned to the notion that it will do less in the future.

He ended in his interview with a direct appeal to the Trump administration.

"We understand that you want and need to do less in conventional deterrence and defence in Europe, but give us a chance to mitigate that," Pistorius said. "Give us a chance to fill the maybe dangerous gaps, of capability gaps, to be able to defend ourselves and to achieve more conventional deterrent on our own.

"Give us the time. Partners and allies do that among each other and we are working on that and hopefully we find a way to do so."

Senior reporter, defence and security

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