Rebels, mergers and defections: Is NDA inching towards a two-thirds Lok Sabha majority?

ARoseola of defections, dissidence and mergers in some of bharat’s largest oppositeness parties mightiness crowd the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) within striking distance of two-thirds majority in Parliament, needed to pass constitutional amendments implementing delimitation of constituencies and women’s quota.In the 2024 general elections, four of India’s most-populous provinces — Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu — delivered a setback to the Bharatiya Janata Party, restricting its tally in the Lok Sabha to 240 and NDA to 293.Also read | BJP still needs more MPs to pass crucial legislationsBut after the recent round of assembly polls in five states and UTs, the ruling dispensation is looking to turn the tables on the Opposition, which banded together to defeat the government’s bid to implement the women’s quota and delimitation earlier this year.NDA is inching closer to targetNow, the NDA is inching closer to the target — state by state. In Bengal, if the proposed merger of 20 rebel Trinamool Congress MPs with the Nationalist Citizens Party of India (NCPI) goes through. Barasat MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar, the de-facto leader of the rebel group, has already said they will back the NDA and PM Narendra Modi in Parliament.Then, on Wednesday, six Lok Sabha members of the Shiv Sena (UBT) wrote to Speaker Om Birla, asking to form a separate grouping. The party, which has nine lawmakers in the Lower House, issued a whip, asking its MPs to attend a meeting of the party’s parliamentary unit on Thursday.Also read | The Shiv Sena (UBT) split that could hand BJP a major win in Lok SabhaSena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut alleged that the rebels are being bought. “I got a call from an important person. He said each MP was offered ₹50 crore to leave the party. ₹15 crore was given as an advance. I was even told the MPs were not willing to sit in the chartered planes till they were given the advance,” he claimed.If the rebel Sena (UBT) leaders have their way, NDA numbers might reach 319.In UP, speculation of a split in Samajwadi Party started swirling on Wednesday after state minister and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party chief Om Prakash Rajbhar claimed a major split was likely in SP. “SP will witness a major split. Ram Gopal Yadav has handed over a letter to Union home minister Amit Shah,” Rajbhar said on X. He added that the situation was not limited to Maharashtra and West Bengal and that “the entire SP is ready to join the BJP”.In a veiled attack on Rajbhar, Akhilesh Yadav said on X: “Those making predictions should clarify whether the BJP is actually offering their party 75 seats, 50, or merely empty assurances. The people who paid them advances — based on rumors they spread about getting 30 seats through an alliance with the BJP — are now looking for them.” Talking to reporters, he added: “The SP remains united.”In Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s strained ties with former ally Congress appear to have created an opening. HT reported on June 10 that BJP had started discussions with DMK, which has 22 MPs in the Lok Sabha and eight in the Rajya Sabha. A DMK spokesperson refused to comment on the matter.In the current 540-member Lok Sabha, the NDA has 293 members and needs 360 for the bill’s passage.In the Rajya Sabha, too, churn is afoot. The NDA, which has 149 members, needs 164 votes in the 245-member Rajya Sabha. After the June 18 Rajya Sabha polls, the NDA numbers are expected to rise to 155. In addition, there are at least three vacancies created by the resignations of TMC Rajya Sabha members earlier this month. With the BJP controlling 208 of the 294 members in the West Bengal assembly, Rajya Sabha bypolls in the state are expected to go in the BJP’s favour.