When will monsoon reach Mumbai? IMD shares update

MUmbai and a great deal of the western sandwich coast’s hold back for the monsoon is expected to endure thirster, with no significant progress in the Southwest Monsoon expected in the next five days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday, even as the overall monsoon deficit touched 38% so far this season.To be sure, June rains account, on average, for only around 19 to 20% of the rain India receives between June 1 and September 30, the duration of the Southwest Monsoon in the country.Also read | Monsoon report card so far | Number TheoryOfficials said some progress is only expected through the eastern arm of the monsoon, with no progress likely on the western arm till at least June 22. Further progress of the monsoon, including on the western side, is only expected to pick up again on June 22 and 23, with a low pressure area developing over the Bay of Bengal.“The Southwest Monsoon is likely to advance into some more parts of Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, and some parts of Chhattisgarh over the next 4-5 days,” said the IMD in its national weather bulletin on Wednesday.Also read | Mohali: Incomplete repairs, open drains spark monsoon fears on Kharar-Landran roadOn June 17, the northern limit of the monsoon was passing through Harnai, Solapur, Hyderabad, Bhadrachalam, Koraput, Phulbani, Ranchi, Jamui and Muzaffarpur.“The moisture content over the Arabian Sea is currently weak. We are expecting it to progress on the western side from June 23,” said IMD DG M Mohapatra.To be sure, IMD jumped the gun and called the onset of the monsoon over Maharashtra on June 8; but the state has seen no rains, and the state government has asked farmers to hold off sowing plans.IMD data showed that since June 1, the country as a whole has recorded 46.2mm of rainfall , against a long period average (LPA) of 74.3mm, making for a 38% deficit. The worst impacted is central India, where the deficit currently stands at 62%. Meteorological experts said progress had halted due to a double whammy of the El Nino, combined with lack of localised weather systems.Also read | Uneven rain, dry gaps: What satellite data reveals about India's monsoon, El Nino riskEl Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It disrupts regular wind and atmospheric pressure patterns, including weakening of the southwest monsoon by reducing moisture.“Currently, there is no weather system over the Bay of Bengal. There needs to be a low pressure area or a depression to give the monsoon a push in the eastern parts of the country. It is also needed to pull the monsoon across western coast from the Arabian Sea,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president at private weather forecaster Skymet, adding the monsoon is expected to start progressing after June 22 or 23.“A pressure area is likely to develop during the time in Central Bay of Bengal,” he said, stating the monsoon may only touch Mumbai closer to June 25.The normal date for the monsoon touching Mumbai is June 11.Rain-fed agriculture constitutes nearly 60% of India’s net sown area, leaving vast tracts of farmland highly vulnerable to erratic weather. A poor monsoon directly damages crop output, driving up food inflation while also shrinking rural disposable incomes.