Alberta separation could prompt potential $62B economic hit, business exodus: Calgary Chamber report

A young cover released midweek by the Calgary Chamber of commercialism claims Alberta breakup from Canada could spur a business exodus and shrink the provincial economy by $62 billion a year.

But the report’s release quickly drew a charge from one prominent voice for separation, who argued the chamber is engaged in “political advocacy,” and said independence would create economic opportunities with Alberta’s biggest trading partner, the United States.

The chamber’s new figures represent the latest attempt to put numbers around the economic outlook for Alberta should residents ultimately choose to leave the country. It also comes on the heels of the provincial government announcing it has commissioned the University of Calgary in a separate effort.

Alberta government commissions $1.5M economic analysis and panel on cost of separation

The chamber has said for months that it is “deeply concerned” by the prospect of Alberta leaving Canada, arguing that the initiative itself will cause “profound economic uncertainty and damage” to the province.

For its report, the chamber tasked University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe to conduct an analysis tied to separation. Tombe is also a part of the federalist group Lead Not Leave.

Based on the measured effect of Brexit in the U.K., Tombe estimated that an eight per cent increase in trade costs could see Alberta lose 175,000 jobs and see its economy shrink, potentially by as much as $62 billion a year.

Trade costs could rise due to increased regulatory differences and potential tariffs, or exclusion from international trade agreements, he said.

“Now, that’s a change in trade cost informed from Brexit. It could be a little lower,” Tombe said. “Could also be higher, because a separate Alberta is a much more complicated endeavour than the United Kingdom exiting the European Union.”

Tombe estimates approximately 900,000 Albertans — about one in three workers — work in sectors that are heavily reliant on exports outside the province. 

Tombe also did calculations based on Alberta’s economic relationships with the rest of the country.

He estimated approximately 330,000 local jobs are supported by Alberta’s interprovincial exports, and that an eight per cent rise in interprovincial trade costs could lead to a $16 billion retraction in the size of Alberta’s economy, and a reduction of 34,000 jobs.

Tombe estimates interprovincial trade with Alberta supports 800,000 jobs nationally.

Keith Wilson, a lawyer and advocate for separation with the third-party advertiser Let Alberta Decide, said he questioned comparing the Alberta situation to Brexit, calling it “fundamentally different.”

“Brexit was about the U.K. Moving away from its largest market, being Europe,” he said. “Alberta independence is about Alberta moving closer to its largest market, and the largest market in the world, the United States.” 

The chamber report isn’t the only economic projection for Alberta tied to the prospect of separation. Other numbers offered up by competing camps have ranged dramatically.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has estimated leaving Canada could cost the province $400 billion in transitional costs, plus an annual price tag of up to $50 billion. Included in that estimate was Alberta’s share of the national debt, as well as its NATO commitments and other startup costs. 

Jeffrey Rath, chief lawyer for Stay Free Alberta, has called that figure “insane.” The Alberta Prosperity Project, the group behind Stay Free Alberta, has come up with a transition cost of approximately $6 billion.

In its fiscal plan released in July 2025, which it calls the Value of Freedom, the group argued an independent Alberta would see fiscal surpluses after retaining money previously sent to Ottawa through taxes.

Earlier this month, the Alberta government announced it had commissioned the University of Calgary to study the potential costs of Alberta leaving Canada. That report is intended to be completed by the end of the summer.

Alberta premier warns separation could cost $400B. Separatists, economists and Brexit scholars have thoughts

Alberta government commissions $1.5M economic analysis and panel on cost of separation

As part of the same chamber report, the business group also surveyed its members on separation after hearing concerns around the issue “for several months,” according to Ruhee Ismail-Teja, the chamber’s vice president of policy and external affairs.

“We wanted to understand, in more depth, just what those concerns entailed,” Ismail-Teja said.

Probe Research reached out to all of the chamber’s members between June 8 and 22.  Of the group’s roughly 2,000 members, 137 took part. 

As an online survey is a sample of convenience, no margin of error can be ascribed. A random and representative sample of 137 members would have a margin of error of +/- 8.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

While not a representative sample of all businesses in Calgary, the survey offers insight into the perspectives of those who chose to participate.

More than three-quarters of respondents said they thought the discussion around separatism was negatively affecting Alberta’s economy.

Roughly two-thirds of responding businesses said it was having a negative effect on their operation, while a little more than a quarter reported no effect.

Just under half of respondents to the survey said they were likely to leave Alberta and relocate their business if the province votes to begin the separation process.

Tombe said businesses have left Montreal in the past amid debate over Quebec separation.

“I don't see why there would be any difference with Alberta,” Tombe said. “Calgary is an important home to the headquarters of many firms.

"Not just firms that have operations in Alberta, but national and indeed international firms, where these kind of policy risks, regulatory risk, political uncertainty may very well lead many to exit the province.

"How much? Of course, that’s not something one could estimate.”

Wilson said the survey results suggested that the chamber was measuring “fear, not opportunity.”

“The reality is that Alberta’s economy and Canada’s economy is tied to agriculture, is tied to oil and gas, is tied to resource development, and none of which can move. They’ll all be staying here,” Wilson said. 

“Our economy also has attracted a very highly-skilled workforce that continues to grow. They’ll stay here for the jobs related to the resource economy. This is not a situation like [what] existed in Quebec in the 1970s.”

The chamber represents 400,000 employees.

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