FinMin flags risks of deficient monsoon

NEw DelhiAdult wellness care put on the line, if left wing unaddressed, could move long-term health and productivity outcomes, the finance ministry’s monthly economic survey said on Tuesday while expressing confidence in robustness of Indian economy with a cautionary note on expected deficient monsoon.Citing the recently released National Family Health Survey (NFHS-6), it pointed at significant achievements in child nutrition, women’s empowerment and public health infrastructure. It, however, said that rising rates of overweight, obesity, elevated blood sugar, and hypertension among adults signal growing non-communicable disease risks.“Along with education and skilling, investments in health and nutrition are equally foundational to human capital… Areas of concern are obesity and diabetes among a wide cross-section of the adult population,” it said.Despite encouraging improvements in child undernutrition and institutional factors, NFHS-6 also highlights a dual health challenge among adults (aged 15-49 years), where overweight and obesity coexist alongside a rising prevalence of elevated blood sugar and hypertension, it said, stressing on the need to promote healthier diets and limit Ultra-Processed Food (UPF) intake.The Monthly Economic Review for June 2026, prepared by the economic division of the department of economic affairs (DEA), however, expressed confidence in underlying strength in India’s domestic economic activities despite global headwinds. The Indian economy recorded robust growth of 7.7% in 2025-26, supported by strong performance in the manufacturing and services sectors, alongside healthy consumption and investment demand.“Economic activity maintained its momentum in the early months of 2026-27, as reflected in high-frequency indicators such as e-way bill generation, PMI indices and electricity consumption, although some moderation was visible in select indicators,” it said. These include, core industries, fuel consumption, air passenger traffic, consumer confidence, and labour market indicators that suggest some easing in momentum.Supportive reservoir levels and adequate fertiliser availability continued to provide favourable conditions for agricultural activity. However, the weak progress of the southwest monsoon has weighed on kharif sowing, and the monsoon rainfall deficit is a concern, it said. “Among the many things India needs to build buffers for in the coming years, water may be at the top of the list,” it added.Now, attention turns to the impact of a deficient monsoon. While the monsoon rains are expected to improve in July and August, experts point to the increasing unpredictability of rainfall patterns. Among other things, water conservation, including recycling, utilisation of budgetary allocations for Jal Jeevan Mission, may now be at the top of the policy priority list, it said.The West Asia conflict and the deficient monsoon rainfall (so far) also underscore the need to reorient India’s agricultural pricing policies to incentivise the cultivation of climate-resilient crops and disincentivise water-intensive ones. The steady stream of destabilising events and developments globally and climatically is a reminder of the challenges likely to arise in the coming years and the need for policy to stay a step ahead of them, it said.Recent easing in global commodity markets, a correction in crude oil prices, and softening of key input prices such as urea may help moderate imported inflationary pressures, it said. Although the normalisation of global supply chains and trade flows to pre-conflict levels may take time, the decline in international commodity prices is expected to provide some cushion against further price pressures, it added.According to the report, the external sector remains supported by strong export performance, resilient FDI inflows, and comfortable foreign exchange reserves. The recent de-escalation of tensions in West Asia and progress in US-Iran negotiations have contributed to a correction in Brent crude oil prices, providing some relief from external and inflationary pressures, it said. International benchmark Brent that surged nearly $120 a barrel in March due to the war in West Asia, fell significantly in June after the intensity of the conflict ebbed. Brent crude has been hovering below $80 a barrel after June 19 and it closed at $73.15 per barrel on Monday.“The cessation of the conflict in West Asia has brightened the outlook for growth and also reduced inflation and external deficit risks. India’s resilient merchandise export growth is a bright spot. Free trade agreements coming into effect should boost export growth further. Reforms to DGFT processes and further relaxation of Quality Control Orders are examples of continued policy pragmatism,” it said.India’s merchandise exports in May jumped 18% to $45.20 billion as compared to $38.30 in the same month last year. Despite external headwinds such as the US-Iran-Israel war and blockade of popular sea route through Strait of Hormuz, India overall exports (merchandise and services combined) in April-May 2026-27 stood at $162.69 billion, registering nearly 15% annualised growth. The India-UK free trade agreement, which is scheduled to be operational on July 15, is expected to give further boost to Indian exports.